Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 12, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 since Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Trafalgar-R) to 48% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (up 3 from Thursday), putting him 10 points net negative––the worst average Biden has had since he became president.
VIRGINIA: GOVERNOR 2021
Among voters statewide
Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +4 (49-45-1)
RON’S COMMENT: Republican Youngkin has yet to win the race and Democrat McAuliffe is struggling not to lose it…. The last four polls give McAuliffe an average lead of 3.5…. From the poll report:
- 55% of Democratic likely voters and 61% of Republican likely voters are “very enthusiastic” about this election.
- 61% of Virginia voters support laws to protect women’s access to abortion, while 30% support making it more difficult.
- Voters oppose a law banning abortion once a fetal heartbeat is detected around 6 weeks (55% to 36%).
- Democratic AG Mark Herring leads Republican Jason Miyares, 49-43.
- For lieutenant governor, Democrat Hala Ayala leads Republican Winsome Sears, 48-44.
FLORIDA: SENATE 2022
Among voters statewide
Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +4 (42-38-5)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Alan Grayson (D): +12 (44-32-10)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll, conducted for a Republican PAC, has incumbent Rubio running first, although the trial heat against Democratic U.S. Rep. Demings shows the race fairly close with 5% saying they’d prefer some other candidate. Rubio won re-election last time with 52%. The Congressional Black Caucus and EMILY’s list support Demings for the Democratic nomination…. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican or battleground.
OHIO: SENATE 2022
Among Republican primary voters statewide
Republican primary
Josh Mandel: 37%
J.D. Vance: 13%
Mike Gibbons: 8%
Jane Timken: 6%
Others: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: This primary will determine the GOP nominee for the Ohio Senate seat being vacated by Republican incumbent Rob Portman. Mandel is former state treasurer and has run twice for the Senate, 2012 and 2018. Vance is a venture capitalist, Marine veteran and author of Hillbilly Elegy…. Democrats include U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, who lost a longshot bid for the 2020 presidential nomination,and Morgan Harper, who lost a 2020 bid for the House.
VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS
Among adults nationwide
[Asked of those who have been vaccinated for COVID-19] To combat variants, some countries — including the U.S. — are now or will soon be offering boosters to adults. Would you get a booster shot if it were available to you?
Yes: 64%
No: 11%
Not sure: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: Of those already vaccinated, 78% of Democrats, 51% of Republicans and 62% of independents say they would get a booster shot.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Shortly after this president’s re-election and before the electoral votes were cast, the opponent he defeated died. A few months after the president was sworn in for a second term, his new vice-president had a debilitating stroke and eventually died in office. Name the president (and, for extra points, his re-election opponent and his new vice president).
(See answers below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA:VCreek/AMG for Americas PAC (R), Sept. 23-27
OHIO: WPA Intel. (R): Sept. 20-23
VIRGINIA: CNU/Wason Center for Civic Leadership, Sept. 27-Oct. 6
VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS, BOOSTER SHOTS: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 3-5
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
President Ulysses Grant was re-elected in 1872. Horace Greeley, who lost to Grant, died in November 1872, right after the election and before the electoral votes were cast. Henry Wilson took office as Grant’s new vice-president in March 1873, had a stroke in May 1873 and died in office November 1875.
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