LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Voter Interest – Candidate Gender – UK Politics – New Florida Polling

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on eight polls, ranging from 36% (IBD/TIPP) to 44% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 40%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 15 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters statewide

FLORIDA: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) and Rick Scott (R): even (49-49)

RON’S COMMENT: After a run of three polls placing Scott ahead, this is the second one now showing the race even. Scott wins whites 55-44 and Nelson wins blacks 90-5. Scott also carries Hispanics 59-39. Nelson carries Democrats 89-8 and independents 56-43. Scott carries Republicans 92-7. Sen. Nelson’s job rating is 49% approve/43% disapprove. Gov. Scott’s rating is 51% approve/46% disapprove. As usual, Florida is the state to watch. Handicappers rate the race toss-up.

FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +3 (50-47)

RON’S COMMENT: The third poll in a row showing Democrat Gillum with a lead over Republican DeSantis. Looking at the poll’s internals, there are big gender and racial gaps: Men vote for DeSantis 52-45 percent, while women support Gillum 55-42 percent. DeSantis wins whites 52-45 percent, but Gillum carries blacks 93-2. Hispanics favor DeSantis 56-43. DeSantis wins Republicans 92-6 and Gillum wins Democrats 93-3. Independents go to Gillum 55-42. Gillum’s rating is 46% favorable/33% unfavorable. DeSantis is 45% favorable/43% unfavorable. Trump’s job rating in Florida is 47% approve/51% disapprove, better than he does nationwide. Handicappers rate the race toss-up.

Among voters nationwide

“Compared with past midterm elections, is voting this year much more important to you, more important, the same, less important or much less important?”

Much more important: 32%
More important: 33%
Same: 31%
Less important: 3%

RON’S COMMENT: Nearly two-thirds of the national electorate say this midterm election is more important to them than part such elections. The party breakdown shows a considerable Democratic advantage: 40% of Democrats say it’s “much more important” versus 28% of Republicans who say it’s “much more important.” Also, in another question: 69% of Democratic voters say it’s “extremely” or “very” important to them that a Congressional candidate shares their views about Trump, while 65% of Republican voters do.

Among voters nationwide

“All things being equal, would you prefer to vote for a man or a woman for Congress this fall?”

Man: 7%
Woman: 16%
Doesn’t matter: 76%

RON’S COMMENT: One way to look at these numbers is that voters by more than 2 to 1 prefer voting for a woman. Another way is that more than three-fourths of voters say gender doesn’t matter when they vote for Congress…. By the demos: 29% of Democrats prefer to vote for a woman and only 5% for a man. 10% of Republicans would vote for a man and only 3% would vote for a woman. Also: 21% of women and 9% of men would vote for a woman candidate. Voters 18 to 24 pick a woman over a man 24-7, but voters over 65 prefer a male candidate 11-9.

Among British voters 

Party Preference:

% = Average of last two polls

  • Labour: 39%
  • Conservative: 38%
  • Lib Dems: 8%
  • UKIP: 6%
  • SNP: 4%
  • Greens: 3%

RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last two polls puts Labour slightly ahead of the Conservative Party. The recent Survation poll shows men vote Conservative 39-37 and women vote Labour 45-35. Voters under 30 years old vote Labour 72-18 and voters 65-74 vote Conservative 51-30. Voters in London pick Labour 44-39.

Brexit Re-vote:

Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?”

Leave the EU: 47%
Remain in the EU: 47%
Undecided: 5%

RON’S COMMENT: Voters are split on the EU question. In the Survation poll, Conservatives vote to leave the EU by 65-32 and Labour voters want to remain in the EU by 67-29.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: Quinnipiac, Aug. 30-Sept. 3
VOTER INTEREST: Washington Post/ABC, Aug. 26-29
UK PARTIES, BREXIT: You Gov/The Times, Aug. 28-29; Survation, Aug. 31-Sept. 1

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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