Clarus’ Lunchtime Politics: Tuesday Trivia – Omarosa – QAnon – Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls. The range is 42% (Gallup) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today, which is 6 points higher than his approval.

Among voters statewide

FLORIDA: Rick Scott (R) over Sen. Bill Nelson (D): +4 (40-36)
MICHIGAN: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +16 (51-35)

RON’S COMMENT: The Florida Senate battle remains close, with challenger Scott edging out incumbent Nelson. Handicappers rate the race toss-up…. Incumbent Stabenow posts a solid lead over GOP nominee James. She wins women 57-30 and men 45-40. Though Trump carried Michigan in 2016 by a narrow margin, his job rating in the state is now an upside down 40% approve/55% disapprove, which helps Stabenow. Handicappers rate the race likely or solid Democratic.

Among voters statewide 

FLORIDA (R primary): Adam Putnam (R) over Ron DeSantis (R): +10 (51-41)
FLORIDA (D primary): Gwen Graham (D) over Philip Levine (D): +9 (31-22-40)
MICHIGAN: Gretchen Whitmer (D)over Bill Schuette (R): +15 (52-37)
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Gov. Chris Sununu (R) over Molly Kelly (D): +16 (48-32)
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Gov. Chris Sununu (R) over Steve Marchand (D): +15 (48-33)

RON’S COMMENT: The Florida Republican gubernatorial primary has been topsy-turvy, with the lead shifting multiple times. This poll shows Putnam regaining the edge, after a run of polls that had DeSantis ahead. On the Democratic side, Graham holds the advantage, although her margin has been bouncing around. The primary is Aug. 28…. In Michigan, Democrat Whitmer is rolling up a big lead among independents (54-26) and is winning women by a huge margin (61-29). Republican Schuette leads men 47-42. Handicappers rate the race toss-up or tilt Democratic. If Whitmer continues to post wide leads, expect the handicapping to quickly shift more in her favor. The current governor of Michigan, Rick Snyder (R), is term-limited…. Republican incumbent Sununu leads both possible GOP challengers by solid margins in New Hampshire. He has an enviable job rating: 61% approve/21% disapprove. The Democratic primary is Sept. 11. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.

Among voters nationwide

“Have you seen or heard recent news about Omarosa Manigault-Newman releasing a book about her time working in the White House, or not?”

Have seen or heard: 73%
Have not seen or heard: 27%

RON’S COMMENT: One thing you can say about the Trump presidency, it makes news––and most Americans follow it closely. The 73% who have followed the Omarosa book controversy underscores that reality.

“Do you think Trump hiring Omarosa to work in the White House did or did not show good judgment on his part?”

Did show good judgment: 17%
Did not show good judgment: 54%
Don’t know: 28%

RON’S COMMENT: 25% of Republicans, 15% of independents and 13% of Democrats say hiring Omarosa showed good judgment.

“Is your general impression of Omarosa favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?”

Favorable: 8%
Unfavorable: 37%
Don’t know: 55%

RON’S COMMENT: Finally, something partisans of every stripe can agree on––only 3% of Republicans, 6% of independents and 16% of Democrats are favorable toward Omarosa.

Among voters statewide

“Turning to how the White House operates, how confident are you in the way that the president’s advisers and staff are handling their jobs – very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?”

Confident: 42%
Not confident: 55%

“And in general, would you say Donald Trump does or does not hire the best people?”

Does: 30%
Does not: 58%

RON’S COMMENT: 18% of Republicans, 59% of independents and 93% of Democrats say Trump does NOT hire the best people.

Among voters statewide 

“How much have you heard about a group known as QAnon – a great deal, just some, very little, or nothing at all?” 

A great deal: 3%
Just some: 12%
Very little: 17%
Nothing: 65%

RON’S COMMENT: QAnon refers to a conspiracy theory involving the “deep state” and its covert actions against President Trump and his supporters. Q––the online handle used by individuals and groups advancing the theory––claims to have secret information about these matters. They have also accused a variety of actors, politicians and other government officials of participating in child sex trafficking.

“Based on what you have heard or read, would you say you have a positive impression of QAnon, a negative impression of QAnon, or don’t you know enough to say?”

Positive impression: 2%
Negative impression: 12%

RON’S COMMENT: Of the few Americans who could rate QAnon, they’re heavily negative.

Which U.S. president has had the longest post-presidency timespan?
(See answer below)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: St. Leo Univ., Aug. 10-15
MICHIGAN: Gravis, Aug. 14-16
NEW HAMPSHIRE: UNH/Granite State Poll, Aug. 2-19
QANON: CNN, Aug. 9-12

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.


Jimmy Carter. He left the presidency 37 years and 200 days ago, and is still going strong. The only presidents to come close to the length of his post-presidency timespan are Herbert Hoover, almost 32 years; Gerald Ford, almost 30 years; George H.W. Bush, nearly 26 years (and counting); and John Adams, 25 years.

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