Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, August 31, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (ABC/Washington Post) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 13 points higher than his approval rating
HAVE A SAFE, HAPPY LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WE WILL BE BACK TUESDAY.
FRIDAY’S GENERIC BALLOT FOR CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
The Economist: Democrats +6
Harvard-Harris: Democrats +8
Reuters/Ipsos: Democrats +13
Current average: Democrats: +9.0
Last week: Democrats: +6.5
RON’S COMMENT: The average Democratic advantage in the nationwide generic ballot has widened from 6.5 points last week to 9 points now…. The Harvard-Harris poll shows that the Democratic lead is 16 points among women, 27 points among 18-34 year olds, 11 points among independents, 14 points among those who voted for a third party candidate for president in 2016, 59 points among blacks and 49 points among Hispanics. Republicans lead men (+2), whites (+12), rural voters (+14), voters 50-64 (+7) and voters over 65 (+1).
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state
SENATE
WEST VIRGINIA: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) over Patrick Morrisey (R): +8 (46-38)
FLORIDA: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +1 (46-45)
RON’S COMMENT: The West Virginia numbers show Manchin with a clear, though not insurmountable, lead. This poll finds that Morrisey’s voters tend to be more interested in this year’s election. Democrat Manchin’s job rating is 43% approve/39% disapprove. It should be noted that Trump’s approval rating in West Virginia is 60%, a reality that haunts Manchin’s campaign. Another haunting reality for them: the state’s voters would prefer a Republican-controlled Congress over a Democratic-controlled Congress by a 47-32 margin. Handicappers rate the race tilt or lean Democratic or toss-up …. The Florida poll, conducted by a Democratic outfit, is the first one in a while showing Democrat Nelson ahead. It also shows Trump’s rating in the state to be 46% approve/49% disapprove, a little better than his nationwide numbers. Handicappers rate the race toss-up.
GOVERNOR
FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +5 (48-43)
KANSAS: Kris Kobach (R) over Laura Kelly (D): +1 (39-38-Ind 9)
RON’S COMMENT: This Florida poll––conducted right after the primaries by the same Democratic outfit that shows Nelson ahead by a point in the Senate race––has Democrat Gillum ahead of Republican DeSantis by 5 points in the gubernatorial contest. Handicappers rate the race toss-up…. The Kansas poll, also taken by the same Democratic pollster, has Republican Kobach edging Democrat Kelly by a single point. It has independent Greg Orman, who ran second behind Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in the 2014 Senate election, getting 9%. Handicappers rate the race lean Republican or toss-up.
LABOR DAY SPECIAL: JOBS
Among voters nationwide
“How worried are you about losing your job?”
Very worried: 7%
Somewhat worried: 30%
Not very worried: 63%
“If you lost your job, how hard would it be for you to find a new job that paid as much as you are making now?”
Very hard – I would probably have to take a pay cut: 28%
Somewhat hard – It might take a while before I found a job that paid as much: 37%
Not very hard: 22%
Not sure: 14%
“Six months from now do you think there will be…”
More jobs: 31%
The same amount of jobs: 34%
Fewer jobs: 16%
Not sure: 19%
IMPEACHMENT
Among voters nationwide
“Do you think that, for his actions, President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, censured by Congress, or no action should be taken?”
Trump should be impeached/removed from office: 37%
Trump should be censured by Congress: 22%
No action against Trump should be taken: 41%
RON’S COMMENT: While 41% of voters want to take no action against the president, those who do are divided between impeachment and censure, most preferring impeachment. The fact that 63% of Democrats want impeachment is the reason why some Democratic candidates for Congress feel so pressured on the issue…. It should also be noted that 11% of Republicans favor impeachment and removal, while another 17% would like Congress to censure Trump.
MUELLER INVESTIGATION
Among voters nationwide
“How long do you think independent counsel Robert Mueller should keep on investigating?”
Should stop immediately: 28%
One to 12 more months: 36%
Should go on ndefinitely: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll also finds that 63% of voters want Mueller to present his case in advance of the 2020 presidential elections.
“Do you think bias against President Trump in the FBI played a role in launching investigations against him or did bias play no role in launching investigations?”
Bias played a role: 54%
Bias played no role: 46%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump has sold a majority of Americans on the idea that FBI bias against him has played a role in launching investigations against him. Interestingly, 81% of Republicans, 34% of Democrats and 50% of independents say bias played a role.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
WEST VIRGINIA: Metro News/Dominion Post, Aug. 16-26
FLORIDA: PPP (D), Aug. 29-30
IMPEACHMENT, MUELLER INVESTIGATION: Harvard-Harris, Aug. 22-23
LABOR DAY SPECIAL––JOBS: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 26-28
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
Ind = Independent candidate
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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