LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Pardons: Yes or No? – TV Ads – Catholic Church – Voting for Congress – Florida, Texas

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, August 27, 2018

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters) to 46% (Rasmussen)––that’s an unusually tight trading range. Without these two polls, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters in each state

TEXAS: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +1 (38-37-4)

RON’S COMMENT: If this poll is accurate––showing Cruz in a near dead heat with 25% of voters selecting neither major-party candidate––it’s very big news. But, Texas Republicans are already scoffing at this “college poll” (it was conducted by Emerson College). Nonetheless, Cruz’s average lead from the last four polls is a fairly narrow 3.3 points….This new survey finds that Cruz’s personal rating is net negative (38% favorable/44% unfavorable/18% neutral) and even worse among independents (25% favorable/57% unfavorable). Among all voters, O’Rourke is 37% favorable/25% unfavorable/27% neutral. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.

FLORIDA (R primary): Ron DeSantis (R) over Adam Putnam (D): +12 (39-27-10)
FLORIDA (D primary): Gwen Graham (D) over Jeff Greene (D): +7 (26-19-Levine 18-Gillum 16)
TEXAS: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Lupe Valdez (D): +20 (48-28-3)

RON’S COMMENT: DeSantis has been leading recent polls in the Florida GOP primary, which is tomorrow. Graham holds the advantage in the Democratic primary, with Jeff Greene, Philip Levine and Andrew Gillum vying for second place…. Gov. Abbott maintains a wide lead in the Texas general election.

Among voters nationwide

“Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don’t know the name, please just say so.” 

% = Positive/Neutral/Negative

  • The Catholic Church: 26%/34%/36%
  • LeBron James: 39%/34%/17%
  • Melania Trump: 38%/36%/21%
  • Elizabeth Warren: 30%/17%/28%
  • Robert Mueller: 28%/21%/28%
  • Donald Trump: 40%/9%/50%
  • The Republican Party: 32%/24%/43%
  • The Democratic Party: 32%/24%/43%
  • Rudy Giuliani: 28%/16%/42%
  • Nancy Pelosi: 20%/22%/48%
  • Mitch McConnell: 12%/25%/41%

RON’S COMMENT: Amazingly, both major parties rate exactly the same…. Also worth noting, Giuliani’s positive rating has fallen from 67% in September of 2002 to 28% now, and his negative rating has risen from 6% to 42%…. The Catholic Church is rated less positively (26%) than negatively (36%). The Church’s negative rating has risen from 26% in February to 36% now. Only 10% rate it “very” positively. Recent stories related to sex abuse scandals seem to be taking a toll.

Among voters nationwide

“Do you think it should be legally permissible for sitting presidents to be formally charged
with a crime?” 

Yes, should be legally permissible: 66%
No, should NOT be permissible: 16%

RON’S COMMENT: Voters are clear on this issue, they believe presidents can be charged with crimes while in office…. 84% of Democrats, 63% of independents and 48% of Republicans say it should be legally permissible for sitting presidents to be formally charged with a crime.

Among voters nationwide

“If President Trump pardoned Paul Manafort, would that be appropriate or inappropriate?”

Appropriate: 11%
Inappropriate: 60%

RON’S COMMENT: Only 4% of Democrats, 10% of independents and 20% of Republicans say that it would be appropriate if Trump pardoned Manafort.

“If President Trump pardoned Michael, would that be appropriate or inappropriate?”

Appropriate: 9%
Inappropriate: 62%

RON’S COMMENT: Only 5% of Democrats, 7% of independents and 16% of Republicans say that it would be appropriate if Trump pardoned Cohen.

Arizona and Illinois

McSally for Senate (R-AZ) “Pink Tutu”

Sinema for Senate (D-AZ) “Independent”

Rauner for Governor (R-IL) “Porcelain Prince”

J.B. Pritzker for Governor (D-IL) “Together”

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TEXAS: Emerson College, Aug. 22-25
FLORIDA: Gravis, Aug. 21-25

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.