LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Surprising New Polls in Tight Races – Nike’s Declining Numbers – Generic Ballot Update

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 7, 2018

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: President Trump has bounced back some from his recent low of 40%. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Gallup) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 43%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide 

The Economist: Democrats +5
Grinnell/Selzer: Democrats +2
Reuters/Ipsos: Democrats +9
Current average: Democrats: +5.3
Last week: Democrats: +9.0

RON’S COMMENT: The average Democratic advantage in the nationwide generic ballot has declined from 9 points last week to 5.3 points now

Among voters in each state and district 

TENNESSEE: Phil Bredesen (D) over Marsha Blackburn (R) over +2 (48-46)
OHIO: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Jim Renacci (R): +4 (46-42)

RON’S COMMENT: In Tennessee, Democrat Bredesen holds a small lead among likely voters over Republican Blackburn. This is one of three Senate races in the nation (the others are Nevada and Arizona) where Democrats have a shot at winning GOP-held seats. Bredesen is very popular statewide, with a 61% favorable/22% unfavorable rating. Blackburn is 46% favorable/36% unfavorable. As a Democrat, Bredesen’s main obstacle is the state’s heavy Republican orientation. Trump carried Tennessee by a whopping 26 points in 2016. But, one stat from the survey’s internals shows that 48% of voters respond to the message that more Democrats are needed in Congress to check Trump, while 46% say more Republicans are needed to help Trump. Handicappers rate the Tennessee Senate race toss-up or lean Republican…. The Ohio numbers are a surprise, and welcome news to the GOP. Incumbent Brown had been posting comfortable double-digit leads, now this poll has his lead at only 4 points. Let’s see if other surveys confirm the tightening of this race. Handicappers rate the Ohio Senate race likely or lean Democratic.

TENNESSEE: Bill Lee (R) over Karl Dean (D): +13 (53-40)
GEORGIA:Stacey Abrams (D) and Brian Kemp (R): even (45-45)
OHIO: Mike DeWine (R) over Richard Cordray (D): +2 (45-43-L6)

RON’S COMMENT: In Tennessee, Republican Lee has a clear lead in the open gubernatorial race. He has a strong positive rating: 53% favorable/21% unfavorable. Democrat Dean is 42% favorable/25% unfavorable. Handicappers rate the Tennessee race likely Republican…. In Georgia, the two candidates are tied. Republican Kemp wins men 53-39 and Democrat Abrams wins women 50-39. Kemp wins whites 65-27 and Abrams wins blacks 86-4. Independents go with Abrams 46-31. Handicappers rate the Georgia race lean Republican…. The Ohio gubernatorial race remains close, with Republican DeWine edging Democrat Cordray. Handicappers rate the Ohio race toss-up or tilt Republican.

SOUTH CAROLINA 1: Katie Arrington (R) over Joe Cunningham (D): +7 (49-42)
ILLINOIS 6: Rep. Peter Roskam (R) over Sean Casten (D): +1 (45-44)
ILLINOIS 12: Rep. Mike Bost (R) over Brendan Kelly (D): +1 (44-43)
CALIFORNIA 48: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) and Harley Rouda (D): even (45-45)

RON’S COMMENT: In South Carolina 1, pro-Trump Arrington defeated incumbent Cong. Mark Sanford, a Trump critic, in the GOP primary. Now she holds a lead over Democrat Cunningham in this poll taken by a Democratic outfit. But, she’s underperforming Trump, who beat Clinton in this coastal district by 13 points….Illinois 6 is a well-educated Chicago suburb that usually votes Republican. Romney won it by 8 points. But, Hillary Clinton beat Trump there by 7 points. Incumbent Roskam is in a battle to keep his seat…. Illinois 12 was won by Obama in 2012 by 2 points and Trump by 15 points in 2016. It includes old manufacturing towns, coal mines and farms. Incumbent Bost is in a tough race against a Democrat who is seen as a strong recruit…. In California 48, incumbent Rohrabacher is tied with his Democratic challenger. The Orange County district voted for Romney by 12 points, but Clinton won it by 2. Democrat Rouda has the support of both his party’s establishment and progressive insurgents. Rohrabacher has taken a hit for pro-Russia views.

Among adults statewide

  • Nike’s favorability dropsBefore the announcement of their new campaign with Colin Kaepernick, Nike had a net +69 favorable rating among consumers, it’s now declined 34 points to +35 favorable.
  • Nike’s purchasing consideration down even among key markets: Before the announcement, 49% of U.S. adults say they were “absolutely certain” or “very likely” to buy Nike products. That’s now down to 39%. Among Republicans, Nike’s purchasing consideration took a dive from 51% to 28%. Among Democrats, it’s down from 57% to 52%. Even among Millennials, it’s down from 53% to 47%. Among blacks, it’s down from 64% to 61%. Among whites, it’s down from 46% to 35%.
  • Effect on the NFL: 40% of consumers surveyed say Nike’s Kaepernick campaign does not affect whether they watch or attend NFL games—but, 21% say it makes them “more likely” and 26% say it makes them “less likely.”

(This data is based on the Morning Consult consumer survey report).

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TENNESSEE: NBC/Marist, Aug. 25-28
GEORGIA: University of Georgia, Aug. 6-Sept. 4
OHIO: Change Research (D)for Innovation Ohio,Aug. 31-Sept. 4
SOUTH CAROLINA 1: PPP (D), Aug. 30-31
ILLINOIS 6, ILLINOIS 12, CALIFORNIA 48: Siena College/NYT, Sept. 4-7
NIKE: Morning Consult, Aug. 26-Sept. 3

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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