LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump’s Rating Slips – Third Party Candidates – Kavanaugh – Sports – Missouri, Florida – Tuesday Trivia

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Down 2 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: This is the lowest job rating we’ve seen for President Trump in a while. Today’s average is based on eight polls, ranging from 36% (IBD/TIPP) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, the average of the other six polls would still be 40%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 15 points higher than his approval rating. That’s also the biggest negative gap we’ve seen in a while.

Among voters in each state 

FLORIDA: Rick Scott (R) and Sen. Bill Nelson (D): even (47-47)
MISSOURI: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Josh Hawley (R): even (47-47)

RON’S COMMENT: Both Florida and Missouri polls show tied races, with all four candidates, coincidentally, at 47%. Both of these contests will be hard-fought and likely very close. Expect record spending levels.If Democrats lose these two incumbents, it sets up Republicans for a possible net gain in the Senate.

FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +2 (47-45)

RON’S COMMENT: This is the second post-primary poll showing Democrat Gillum edging Republican DeSantis. While most campaign operatives in Florida expect DeSantis to close the gap and eventually win, this is turning out to be a tougher race than many thought. More than a few former supporters of Adam Putnam, who lost the GOP nomination to DeSantis, are whispering to one another, “We told them so.”

Among voters nationwide 

‘If the 2020 election for president were held today, would you vote or lean towards voting for the Democratic or Republican candidate for President?”

Democratic candidate: 49%
Republican candidate: 39%
Unsure: 12%

RON’S COMMENT: Democrats win the generic ballot for President by 10 points. Independents break by 5 points in favor a Democrat.

Among voters nationwide

“Would you vote for a third party candidate for President?”

Yes: 47%
No: 53%

RON’S COMMENT: Having a potential pool of 47% of the electorate should be very encouraging in what would be a three-way race. By party: 42% of Democrats, 40% of Republicans and 61% of independents say they would vote for a third party presidential candidate. Michael Bloomberg, call your pollster.

Among voters nationwide

“As you may know, Donald Trump recently nominated Brett Kavanaugh to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s serving as a justice on the Supreme Court, or do you not know enough about him to say?”

Support: 33%
Oppose: 29%
Don’t know enough/unsure: 38%

Among voters nationwide 

“If you had to choose, what sport would you say is your favorite to watch?”

Football: 34%
Basketball: 16%
Baseball: 16%
Ice Hockey: 8%
Soccer: 8%
Nascar: 4%
Other: 15%

RON’S COMMENT: Looking at the politics of sports watching––among NASCAR fans, President Trump’s job rating is 43% approve/44% disapprove. Among ice hockey fans it’s 42%/45%. Among basketball fans, it’s 26% approve/67% disapprove. Among soccer fans it’s 30% approve/53% disapprove. Approval ratings by football and baseball fans were not reported.


Two states elect governors for two-year terms. Name them?
(See answer below)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: Gravis, Aug. 29-30
MISSOURI: NBC/Marist, Aug. 25-28
PRESIDENT: 2010, THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE, SPORTS: Emerson College, Aug. 29-31
KAVANAUGH: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Aug. 18-22

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

New Hampshire and Vermont.

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