Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 4, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 40%
Down 2 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: This is the lowest job rating we’ve seen for President Trump in a while. Today’s average is based on eight polls, ranging from 36% (IBD/TIPP) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, the average of the other six polls would still be 40%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 15 points higher than his approval rating. That’s also the biggest negative gap we’ve seen in a while.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state
SENATE
FLORIDA: Rick Scott (R) and Sen. Bill Nelson (D): even (47-47)
MISSOURI: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Josh Hawley (R): even (47-47)
RON’S COMMENT: Both Florida and Missouri polls show tied races, with all four candidates, coincidentally, at 47%. Both of these contests will be hard-fought and likely very close. Expect record spending levels.If Democrats lose these two incumbents, it sets up Republicans for a possible net gain in the Senate.
GOVERNOR
FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +2 (47-45)
RON’S COMMENT: This is the second post-primary poll showing Democrat Gillum edging Republican DeSantis. While most campaign operatives in Florida expect DeSantis to close the gap and eventually win, this is turning out to be a tougher race than many thought. More than a few former supporters of Adam Putnam, who lost the GOP nomination to DeSantis, are whispering to one another, “We told them so.”
PRESIDENT: 2020
Among voters nationwide
‘If the 2020 election for president were held today, would you vote or lean towards voting for the Democratic or Republican candidate for President?”
Democratic candidate: 49%
Republican candidate: 39%
Unsure: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats win the generic ballot for President by 10 points. Independents break by 5 points in favor a Democrat.
THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE
Among voters nationwide
“Would you vote for a third party candidate for President?”
Yes: 47%
No: 53%
RON’S COMMENT: Having a potential pool of 47% of the electorate should be very encouraging in what would be a three-way race. By party: 42% of Democrats, 40% of Republicans and 61% of independents say they would vote for a third party presidential candidate. Michael Bloomberg, call your pollster.
KAVANAUGH
Among voters nationwide
“As you may know, Donald Trump recently nominated Brett Kavanaugh to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s serving as a justice on the Supreme Court, or do you not know enough about him to say?”
Support: 33%
Oppose: 29%
Don’t know enough/unsure: 38%
SPORTS
Among voters nationwide
“If you had to choose, what sport would you say is your favorite to watch?”
Football: 34%
Basketball: 16%
Baseball: 16%
Ice Hockey: 8%
Soccer: 8%
Nascar: 4%
Other: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: Looking at the politics of sports watching––among NASCAR fans, President Trump’s job rating is 43% approve/44% disapprove. Among ice hockey fans it’s 42%/45%. Among basketball fans, it’s 26% approve/67% disapprove. Among soccer fans it’s 30% approve/53% disapprove. Approval ratings by football and baseball fans were not reported.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Two states elect governors for two-year terms. Name them?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: Gravis, Aug. 29-30
MISSOURI: NBC/Marist, Aug. 25-28
PRESIDENT: 2010, THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE, SPORTS: Emerson College, Aug. 29-31
KAVANAUGH: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Aug. 18-22
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
New Hampshire and Vermont.
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