LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Four Key House Races – New York, Arizona – Should Trump Run Again?

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 10, 2018

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Gallup) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters in each state and district

ARIZONA: Martha McSally (R) over Kyrsten Sinema (D): +1 (49-48)

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Republican McSally has come out of the GOP primary brawl in better shape for the general election. The previous seven polls all had Democrat Sinema running first. McSally wins Republicans 86-13 and Sinema wins Democrats 82-14 and independents 54-42. They’re tied among men and McSally edges Sinema among women 50-47. Handicappers rate the race toss-up.

ARIZONA: Gov. Doug Ducey (R) over David Garcia (D): +4 (48-44)
NEW YORK (D primary): Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) over Cynthia Nixon (D): +41 (63-22)

RON’S COMMENT: In Arizona, incumbent Ducey posts a fairly narrow lead over Democratic challenger Garcia. But, the previous poll from early July had Garcia ahead by a point. Ducey’s job rating is a net positive 52% approve/43% disapprove. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican…. Cuomo maintains a big lead in tomorrow’s New York Democratic primary against Nixon. Among likely Democratic primary voters, Cuomo’s rating is 68% favorable/24% unfavorable and Nixon is 41% favorable/33% unfavorable. Cuomo leads among Democratic men +31, women +48, whites +32, blacks +77, Latinos +61, NYC voters +50, suburbanites +37 and upstate +32…. In the Democratic primary for New York AG, Sean Maloney (25%) and Letitia James (24%) are virtually tied, with Zephyr Teachout third at 18%.

KENTUCKY 6: Rep. Andy Barr (R) over Amy McGrath (D): +1 (47-46)
MINNESOTA 8: Joe Radinovich (D) over Pete Stauber (R): +1 (44-43)
MINNESOTA 3: Dean Phillips (D)over Rep. Erik Paulsen (R): +9 (51-42)
UTAH 4: Rep. Mia Love (R) over Ben McAdams (D): +3 (49-46)

RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Kentucky 6 by 15 points and Romney won it by 14. The fact that this is a tight race in such a GOP-leaning district is one of many reasons why Democrats think they can win control of the House this November. An attack campaign tying Republican McGrath to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton seems to have her hurt, however. Polling in May and June showed McGrath in first place by clear margins. A former Marine, she was the first woman to pilot an F/A-18 in combat…. Obama carried Minnesota 8, a white working class district with heavy union membershipby 6 points––but in 2016, Trump flipped it to the GOP side, winning it by 16 points. The two candidates in this open seat are running close, according to this poll. Democrat Radinovich is a young state legislator and Stauber, a member of the local County Commission, is also a former professional hockey player who played for a minor league affiliate of the Detroit Red Wings…. Utah 4 incumbent Love holds a narrow lead in her re-election bid. Democrat McAdams needs to carry independents by a giant margin to win the race. In this poll, he’s leading independents 62-31––not bad, but not quite good enough…. The Minnesota 3 poll shows incumbent Paulsen trailing Democrat Phillips, a wealthy businessman, by a clear margin. Clinton carried this affluent, well-educated district in 2016 by 9 points.

Among voters nationwide

“Since he took office in January of 2017, would you describe your feelings for President Trump as becoming a lot more favorable, a little more favorable, a little more unfavorable, or a lot more  unfavorable?”

More favorable toward Trump: 42%
Less favorable toward Trump: 53%
No change: 4%

RON’S COMMENT: 13% of Republicans, 90% of Democrats and 59% of independents say they’re less favorable toward Trump since he took office…. This poll also finds that voters are hopeful about the nation’s future: 60% say they’re more hopeful about the way things will be following this year’s midterm election and 59% say they’re more hopeful about the way things will be following the 2020 presidential election.

Among voters nationwide

“Do you want Donald Trump to run for re-election in 2020?” 

Yes: 37%
No: 54%
Not sure: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: 18% of Republicans, 51% of independents and 87% of Democrats do NOT want Trump to run again. 74% of Republicans, 26% of independents and 6% of Democrats do want Trump to run again.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ARIZONA: Gravis, Sept. 5-7
KENTUCKY 6: Siena/NYT, Aug. 6-8
MINNESOTA 8: Siena/NYT, Aug. 6-8
MINNESOTA 3: Siena/NYT, Aug. 7-9
UTAH 6: Dan Jones, Aug. 22-Sept. 6
NEW YORK: Siena, Sept. 4-7
TRUMP––NOW VS. THEN: Grinnell College/Selzer: Aug. 29-Sept. 2
SHOULD TRUMP RUN AGAIN?: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 2-4

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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