LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Tuesday Trivia – Is Democracy Working? – Military Parade – End Investigation? – Wisconsin

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Gallup) to 46% (Harvard-Harris, Rasmussen). The fourth poll in between had it at 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters in each district or state 

WISCONSIN: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over Leah Vukmir (R): +8 (50-42)

RON’S COMMENT: This Suffolk Univ. poll shows incumbent Baldwin with a clear 8-point lead. The last poll we reported, from Marquette Univ., had Baldwin up by only 2 points. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Democratic.

WISCONSIN: Tony Evers (D) over Gov. Scott Walker (R): +2 (46-44)

RON’S COMMENT: Most polls have been showing a close contest, with incumbent Walker struggling to gain a lead. Handicappers rate the race lean Republican or toss-up.

CALIFORNIA 50: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) over Ammar Campa-Najjar (D): +8 (47-39)
NEW YORK 24: Rep. John Katko (R) over Dana Balter (D): +15 (54-39)

RON’S COMMENT: California 50: Incumbent Rep. Hunter and his wife have been indicted for illegally using campaign funds for personal expenses. Nonetheless, 77% of Republican voters in this GOP-leaning district are sticking with him in his re-election bid. Hunter also gets 8% of Democrats and 41% of independents. But, 64% of Republicans, 13% of Democrats and 41% of independents say the charges are “politically motivated.” Young voters back the Democrat 2 to 1, while voters over 35 support Hunter. Only a third of voters think Hunter should resign, although an additional 14% think he should not run again. Hunter received 47% of the vote in the open primary. Handicappers rate the race solid, safe or likely Republican…. In New York 24, GOP incumbent Katko has a solid lead over Democrat Balter. That’s good for the Republicans, since Clinton beat Trump in the district 49-45. Handicappers rate the race likely Republican.

Among voters nationwide 

“Which of the following statements comes closer to your point of view about Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia’s involvement in the 2016 presidential election? It is time to end the investigation …or… The investigation should continue.” 

It is time to end the investigation: 35%
The investigation should continue: 41%
No opinion: 24%

RON’S COMMENT: Over the past month, voters who say they want to end the investigation have declined from 38% to 35%.

“Six members of Donald Trump’s campaign, including the former chairman of his campaign and his personal lawyer, have now pled guilty or have been found guilty of crimes. Do you believe that these guilty pleas are just about wrongdoing of these individuals or does this suggest that there is potential wrongdoing by Donald Trump himself? If you don’t know enough to say either way, please just say so.”

Just these individuals: 27%
Potential wrongdoing by Trump himself: 40%
Don’t know: 33%

RON’S COMMENT: The number of voters who think that the wrongdoing may involve Trump has increased from 26% in December to 40% now.

Among voters nationwide

“How satisfied are you with the way democracy is working in America?” 

Satisfied: 39%
Not too/not at all satisfied: 54%

RON’S COMMENT: 20% of Democrats, 31% of independents and 64% of Republicans are satisfied with the way democracy is working. Despite this, 77% of voters believe that democracy is still the best form of government.

Among voters nationwide 

“Do you favor or oppose holding a large military parade in Washington DC?” 

Favor: 32%
Oppose: 52%
Not sure: 16%

RON’S COMMENT: 68% of Democrats, 42% of independents and 29% of Republicans oppose having a military parade.


Who did John McCain replace when he became a member of the U.S. House?
BONUS: Who did John McCain replace when he became a member of the U.S. Senate?
(see answers below)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CALIFORNIA 50: SurveyUSA, Aug. 22-26
NEW YORK 24: Siena College, Aug. 20-23
WISCONSIN: Suffolk Univ., Aug. 18-24
DEMOCRACY, MILITARY PARADE: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 19-21

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.


John J. Rhodes (R-AZ) was McCain’s predecessor in the House. Rhodes served as the GOP Minority Leader in the House for 8 years.
BONUS: Barry Goldwater, the former Republican presidential nominee, was MaCain’s predecessor in the Senate.

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