Clarus’ Lunchtime Politics: Are Baldwin and Menendez in Trouble? – Trump on the Issues – Wisconsin, Texas, Virginia

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, August 23, 2018

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (Gallup) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters in each state 

WISCONSIN: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over Leah Vukmir (R): +2 (49-47)
NEW JERSEY: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) over Bob Hugin (R): +6 (43-37)
TEXAS: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +4 (49-45)
VIRGINIA: Sen. Tim Kaine (D) over Corey Stewart (R): +17 (51-34)

RON’S COMMENT: The closeness of the Wisconsin results is a surprise, and a welcome one for Republicans. Democrat Baldwin has been favored to win re-election, but this poll indicates she could be in trouble. Among likely voters, Baldwin is rated 46% favorable/42% unfavorable. Vukmir is 30% favorable/29% unfavorable. Some local operatives question the poll’s sample, saying it skews Republican. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Democratic. 

The New Jersey Senate seat is another one that Democrats have been favored to hold, although polls keep showing a competitive battle brewing. Here’s why: By a 49-16 margin, voters say Menendez was involved in “serious wrongdoing” referring to his legal situation and recent trial. According to this poll, ethics in government tops the issue importance list. As a result, the Democratic incumbent has an upside down job rating––40% approve/47% disapprove––and a negative personal rating of 29% favorable/47% unfavorable. Independents favor Hugin 37-33 percent. Hugin wins whites 47-38 and Menendez wins non-whites 51-18. Democrats believe they can jack up Menendez’s support among nonwhites between now and November and win the race on the basis of high minority voter turnout. They may be right. While this could be a sleeper, handicappers still see the race as likely or solid Democratic.

Democrats want to beat Ted Cruz in Texas so bad they can taste it, and a number of polls show his challenger, Democrat O’Rourke, within striking distance. While Cruz is getting 91% of Republicans and O’Rourke is getting 90% of Democrats, O’Rourke edges Cruz among independents by 1 point. O’Rourke also wins Latino voters 53-42 and blacks 82-10. Cruz gets 67% of whites without college degrees and 49% of whites with college degrees. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.

WISCONSIN: Gov. Scott Walker (R) and Tony Evers (D): even (46-46-L6)
TEXAS: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Lupe Valdez (D): +19 (56-37)

RON’S COMMENT: Previous polling showed Democrat Evers leading incumbent Walker in Wisconsin. This one has the contest even among likely voters. Handicappers rate the race lean Republican or toss-up…. The Texas poll that shows a modest margin for Republican Cruz’s re-election bid to the Senate also shows Republican Gov. Abbott with a wide lead. Handicappers rate the Texas gubernatorial race solid or safe Republican.

Among voters nationwide 

% = Approve/Disapprove

  • The economy: 49%/44%
  • Border security: 44%/51%
  • International trade: 39%/53%
  • Immigration: 39%/57%
  • Foreign policy: 37%/55%
  • Health care: 36%/55%
  • Race relations: 33%/58%

RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll shows Trump with net positive ratings on only one issue, and that’s the economy––and his rating on that issue has slipped 4 points over the past month. His worst issue is race relations, with 58% of the electorate giving him bad marks.

Among voters nationwide 

% = Favorable/Unfavorable

  • Donald Trump: 41%/57%
  • John McCain: 52%/37%
  • Paul Ryan: 31%/51%
  • Nancy Pelosi: 29%/54%
  • Chuck Schumer: 28%/42%
  • Mitch McConnell: 22%/52%
  • The Democratic Party: 50%/46%
  • The Republican Party: 39%/56%
  • Obamacare: 51%/44%
  • 2017 tax reform law: 40%/41%

RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll shows that only McCain, Obamacare and the Democratic Party have higher positive ratings than negative ratings. All else is under water. Trump’s favorable rating is 10% among Democrats, 83% among Republicans, 32% among independents, 70% among white Evangelicals, 44% among whites with college degrees, 51% among whites without college degrees and 22% among non-whites.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
WISCONSIN: Marquette, Aug. 15-19
NEW JERSEY: Quinnipiac, Aug. 15-20
TEXAS: NBC/Marist, Aug. 12-16
VIRGINIA: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19

Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.