LUNCHTIME POLITICS: New Polls, Plenty of Very Close Races

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, November 2, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters, Trafalgar-R) to 46% (Rasmussen). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (-1 from yesterday), making him 12 points net negative.

CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC PREFERENCE
(Average of most recent nationwide polls)
Republicans: +4 
RON’S COMMENT: All seven polls used for this average show Republicans have the advantage.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

BATTLEGROUND STATE AVERAGES

• NEVADA––Laxalt (R) over Cortez Masto (D): +1
• GEORGIA––Walker (R) over Warnock (D): +1.7 
• PENNSYLVANIA––Oz (R) over Fetterman (D): +0.8 
• WISCONSIN––Johnson (R) over Barnes (D): +1.7
• OHIO––Vance (R) over Ryan (D): +2 
• NORTH CAROLINA––Budd (R) over Beasley (D): +3
• NEW HAMPSHIRE––Hassan (D) over Bolduc (R): +1
• ARIZONA––Kelly (D) over Masters (R): +2.8
• WASHINGTON––Murray (D) over Smiley (R): +3

RON’S COMMENT: Based on our polling averages, Republicans are still ahead in six of the nine battleground states (above). If the GOP ultimately wins these six races, they would have a gain of two Senate seats (Georgia and Nevada). That would be enough to give them a 52-seat Senate majority…. Poll averages also show the parties that now hold seats in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Washington, Arizona and Ohio are ahead, which means no party pick-ups either way in these seven states if that situation continues…. When you have this many close races, anything can happen:  

• Best GOP scenarios: If Republicans win Georgia and Nevada, plus upset Democrats in New Hampshire and/or Arizona, they would win a 53- to 54-seat majority. The absolute best for the GOP, however, would be to add Washington to this list of wins, which would give them a hefty 55-seat majority.
• Still possible Democratic scenario: Pick up Pennsylvania and lose only one incumbent, then they’d have 50 seats, just as they do now, and when they add the Vice President, that gives them the majority.

NEW POLLS
 
RON’S COMMENT:  

• Oz (R)’s lead is hanging by a thread in Pennsylvania. Polls bouncing around a bit.
• Johnson (R) leads in Wisconsin, but his margin has slightly dwindled…. Among voters who have already voted or who are certain to vote, Johnson’s lead is 2 points in the Fox poll…. 58% of Barnes’ (D) voters say they’re enthusiastic about him, while 61% of Johnson’s voters say they’re enthusiastic about him. Interestingly, since mid-August, voters picking inflation as their top voting issue increased 2 points (28% to 30%), while voters picking abortion increased 7 points (17% to 24%).
• Worst news for Democrats today: Bolduc (R) is now edging Hassan (D) in a New Hampshire poll. Democrats, and even a lot of Republicans, thought Hassan had it in the bag a month ago, but this new poll is a red alert. Hassan still has a slight lead in our poll average.
• Republicans are breathing a sigh of relief over the new poll showing Laxalt with a 5-point lead in Nevada. But another poll has him losing by a point, giving Democrats some hope.
• Kelly remains on top in Arizona, but it’s too close for comfort––especially if GOP winds keep blowing…. Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats (58% vs. 50%)…. Kelly leads mail-in voters 57-34.
• In Washington, Murray’s (D) polling average margin is slipping; new GOP-oriented poll has her up by only 2.

NEVADA

• Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez (D): +5 (51-46) Emerson
• Sen. Catherine Cortez (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +1 (45-44) Suffolk
• Average of recent polls: R +1 

PENNSYLVANIA

• John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R): even (47-47) Muhlenberg/Morning Call
• Mehmet Oz (R) over John Fetterman (D): +3 (47-47) co/efficient-R
• Average of recent polls: R +0.8

ARIZONA

• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +2 (47-45) Fox
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +4 (44-40) Shaw
• Average of recent polls: D +2.8 

NEW HAMPSHIRE

• Don Bolduc (R) over Sen. Maggie Hassan (D): +1 (48-47) St. Anselm
• Average of recent polls: D +1  

NORTH CAROLINA 

• Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +1 (44-43) Meredith
• Average of recent polls: R +3

WISCONSIN

• Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +3 (48-45) Fox
• Average of recent polls: R +1.7

WASHINGTON

• Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +2 (48-46) InsiderAdvantage-R
• Average: D +3

COLORADO

• Sen. Michael Bennet (D) over Joe O’Dea (R): +8 (51-43) Emerson
• Average of recent polls: D +12

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENTS: 

• Just as it was looking like Lake was surging in Arizona, the latest polls have tightened. The Fox News poll shows Lake wins men 55-37 and Hobbs wins women 53-40. Hobbs leads mail-in voters 56-37.
• Lombardo (R) on top in Nevada, but still close.
• Abbott (R) expands lead in Texas, as does Walz (D) in Minnesota.
• Wisconsin could go either way.
• Shapiro (D) solid in Pennsylvania.
• Kelly (D) posts small lead in Kansas.
• Hochul (D) leads in polling average, but latest polls conflict in New York…. Big gender gap: In the Emerson poll, men are evenly split (48-48), while women favor Hochul 56-40.

NEVADA

• Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +4 (49-45) Siena
• Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): even (43-43) USAToday
• Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +2 (45-43) Susquehanna
• Average: R +2 

ARIZONA

• Kari Lake (R) and Katie Hobbs (D): +2 (42-40) Shaw
• Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +1 (47-46) Fox
• Kari Lake (R) and Katie Hobbs (D): even (48-48) Siena
• Average: R +1 

GEORGIA

• Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +5 (50-45) Siena
• Average of recent polls: R +8

WISCONSIN

• Tim Michels (R) over Gov. Tony Evers (D): +1 (47-46) 
• Average of recent polls: R +1 

NEW YORK 

• Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +9 (54-45) Emerson
• Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and Lee Zeldin (R): even (54-45) Trafalgar-R
• Average of recent polls: D +5.4

TEXAS

• Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +13 (53-40) Univ. of Houston
• Average of recent polls: R +10.3

MINNESOTA

• Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Scott Jensen (R): +8 (51-43) 
• Average of recent polls: D +4 

KANSAS  

• Gov. Laura Kelly (D) over Derek Schmidt (R): +3 (46-43) Emerson

MICHIGAN  

• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +6 (51-45) Cygnal-R
• Average of recent polls: D +5.5

PENNSYLVANIA

• Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +5 (49-44) Big Data
• Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +10 (51-41) co/efficient-R
• Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +14 (54-40) Muhlenberg/Morning Call
• Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +6 (49-43) Wick-R
• Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +13 (53-40) Siena
• Average of recent polls: D +9.6

​SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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