LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Confidence in Institutions – 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination – Newsom Recall – Ohio 11

Your Daily Polling Update for Sunday, July 18, 2021

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 52%
Up 1 from last week

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 49% (The Economist, Rasmussen) to 59% (The Hill/HarrisX). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 44% today (same as last week)…. An aside: During Trump’s presidency, anti-Trump people kept asking me how is it that Trump’s job rating was as high as it was. Now, during Biden’s presidency, anti-Biden people keep asking me how is it that Biden’s job rating is as high as it is. Tables turn, indeed.

2024 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
Among Republican voters nationwide

“If the Republican primary or caucus for President were held today in your state, for whom would you vote if the candidates were…  
 
ALL POSSIBLE CANDIDATES

• Donald Trump: 47%
• Ron DeSantis: 19%
• Mike Pence: 8%
• Mitt Romney: 3%
• Nikki Haley: 3%
• Ted Cruz: 2%
• Tim Scott: 1%
• Marco Rubio: 1%
• Tom Cotton: 1%
• Kristi Noem: 1%
• Larry Hogan: 1%
• Rick Scott: *
• Mike Pompeo: *
• Josh Hawley: *
• Chris Christie: *
• Undecided: 13%

RON’S COMMENT: Takeaways from this poll–– 

• There are two ways to look at Trump’s strength among Republican voters. On one hand, he posts a big lead over the field. On the other hand, 53% of Republican voters are showing some level of resistance to him as the party’s 2024 nominee. Also, Trump has slipped 4 points since the February poll (from 51% to 47%).
• Florida governor DeSantis is the only candidate with momentum. He went from 7% in February to 19% now, an impressive jump.
• None of the other contenders are moving up. Since February, Pence, Cruz and Rubio each slipped a point, Haley fell 3 points and Romney slipped 2 points. 
• At this point, Haley, Cruz and Rubio––all well-known national figures in the Republican Party––are showing little national strength.
• The anti-Trump possibilities––Romney and Hogan––win a total of only 4%. 
• Ask yourself: Without the events of Jan. 6, how would Pence now be doing?

WITHOUT TRUMP

• Ron DeSantis: 39%
• Mike Pence: 15%
• Ted Cruz: 7%
• Nikki Haley: 4%
• Mitt Romney: 3%
• Tim Scott: 2%
• Kristi Noem: 2%
• Mike Pompeo: 2%
• Marco Rubio: 1%
• Tom Cotton: 1%
• Larry Hogan: 1%
• Rick Scott: 1%
• Josh Hawley: *
• Chris Christie: *
• Undecided: 20%

RON’S COMMENT: With Trump out of the race, DeSantis zooms to first place, leading Pence by a wide 39-15 margin. Everybody else remains stuck in single digits…. Where does the Trump vote go when he’s not included? DeSantis gets 44% of it, Pence gets 15% and Cruz gets 11%. All others are in low single digits…. Keep in mind that there is still plenty of time between now and 2024
 
2-WAY CONTEST

• Donald Trump: 58%
• Ron DeSantis: 31%
• Undecided: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: In a head-to-head race between Trump and DeSantis, Trump wins by a solid 27 points. But considering the lopsided difference in name recognition between these two, it’s still a good showing for DeSantis.

CALIFORNIA: NEWSOM RECALL
Among voters statewide

% = Favor recall, Oppose recall
Change Research (D): 40%/54%
Moore Information (R): 44%/50%
 
RON’S COMMENT: Polls show most voters oppose recalling Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), although Moore’s poll indicates a much closer contest than does the Change poll…. The Change poll finds 6% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans and 62% of independents want to recall the governor…. The Change poll is most recent. However, both polls were taken in June, so they may be a bit stale.

OHIO 11: U.S. HOUSE SPECIAL ELECTION
Among Democratic primary voters districtwide

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Shontel Brown (D): 33%
Nina Turner (D): 33%
Others: 9%
 
RON’S COMMENT: Brown and Turner are tied in the special election Democratic primary to fill the Ohio 11 seat left open when former U.S. Rep. Marcia Fudge (D) became Biden’s HUD secretary…. Brown is a Cuyahoga County councilwoman and has the support of Hillary Clinton and Jim Clyburn…. Turner is endorsed by AOC and Squad members; she co-chaired Bernie Sanders’ campaign…. An internal poll for Brown’s campaign showed her with a 43-36 lead…. The primary is Aug. 3.

CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS
Among adults nationwide

Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one––a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little? 
 
% = “A great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence

• Small business: 70%
• The military: 69%
• The police: 51%
• The medical system: 44%
• The church/organized religion: 37%
• Banks: 33%
• The public schools: 32%
• Tech companies: 29%
• Organized labor: 28%
• Newspapers: 21%
• The criminal justice system: 20%
• Television news: 16%
• Big business: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: Only small business hits the 70% mark and only the military comes close (69%). The police are third with 51%. Every other institution falls far below…. There are big partisan gaps in many of these:  

• 8% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats have “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in newspapers.
• 20% of Republicans and 43% of Democrats have “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in public schools.
• 16% of Republicans and 39% of Democrats have “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in organized labor.
• 6% of Republicans and 25% of Democrats have “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in television news.
• 36% of Republicans and 50% of Democrats have “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in the medical system.
• 76% of Republicans and 31% of Democrats have “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in the police.
• 51% of Republicans and 26% of Democrats have “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in the church/organized religion.
• 78% of Republicans and 62% of Democrats have “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in the military.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
2024 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, July 6-8,
OHIO 11: TargetPoint Consulting/Washington Free Beacon, July 8-10
CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS: Gallup, June 1-July 5
CALIFORNIA RECALL: Change Research (D), June 11-16; Moore Information (R), June 1-3
 
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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