Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, August 14, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Morning Consult) to 45% (Rasmussen, HarrisX). The fourth poll has it at 44%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Beto O’Rourke: 5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This national survey shows Biden’s lead over Warren has slipped to 3 points…. Since last week in this poll, Biden is down 2 points, Warren is up 2 points, Sanders is up 3 points, O’Rourke is up 3 points and Buttigieg is down 1 point. Biden’s gaffes may be hurting him. O’Rourke’s activities after the El Paso shooting seem to have increased his standing.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic voters statewide
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Joe Biden: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Tulsi Gabbard: 5%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders overtakes Biden in New Hampshire. Gabbard, Yang, Klobuchar and Steyer are polling 4-5%, better than they’re doing in nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: SENATE 2020
Among voters statewide
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) over Don Bolduc (R): +13 (51-38)
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) over Bill O’Brien (R): +13 (52-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Shaheen leads the GOP rivals tested. Among women, she beats both Bolduc and O’Brien by 21 points. Among men, she beats Bolduc by 7 points and O’Brien by 5 points…. Shaheen is a former governor who was elected to the Senate in 2008. Bolduc is a former U.S. Army brigadier general. O’Brien is former speaker of the New Hampshire House. Other Republicans have been mentioned as possible candidates, including former Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s former campaign manager.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 10-13
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Gravis, Aug. 2-6
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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