Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, February 15, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
Among Republican voters nationwide
- 58% of Republican voters strongly support Trump’s re-nomination
- 19% of Republican voters somewhat support Trump’s re-nomination
- 12% of Republican voters somewhat support a different candidate for the GOP nomination
- 8% of Republican voters strongly support a different candidate for the GOP nomination
RON’S COMMENT: Nationwide, 77% of Republicans support Trump’s re-nomination in 2020, while 20% don’t. However, in early primary states, 82% of GOP voters support Trump’s nomination.
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE VOTER COALITIONS
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden
Average age of supporters: 52
Under 30 years old: 19%
65 or older: 30%
Male: 44%
Black: 23%
Hispanic: 13%
College educated: 39%
Voters who approve of Trump: 8%
Bernie Sanders
Average age of supporters: 41
Under 30 years old: 44%
65 or older: 12%
Male: 50%
Black: 20%
Hispanic: 23%
College educated: 32%
Voters who approve of Trump: 10%
Kamala Harris
Average age of supporters: 51
Under 30 years old: 18%
65 or older: 25%
Male: 43%
Black: 28%
Hispanic: 17%
College educated: 50%
Voters who approve of Trump: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: To explain––19% of Biden’s supporters are under 30 years old and 30% are 65 and older…. Note the similarities between Biden’s and Harris’ coalitions.
AMAZON IN NEW YORK
Among voters statewide
Do you approve or disapprove of the recently announced deal between Amazon and New York, which grants up to 3 billion dollars in state and city incentives to Amazon in return for Amazon locating its corporate offices in Queens, where it is projected to generate 25 thousand jobs?
% = Approve/Disapprove
New York statewide: 56%/36%
New York City: 58%/35%
Suburbs: 66%/25%
By demographic group statewide:
- Whites: 51%/40%
- Blacks: 70%/25%
- Latinos: 81%/17%
- Democrats: 56%/37%
- Republicans: 47%/42%
- Independents: 64%/29%
RON’S COMMENT: Solid majorities of New York state and city voters approved of Amazon locating its corporate offices in Queens and the deal that made it happen. The two groups most supportive were blacks (70%) and Latinos (81%). As has been reported, Amazon has decided to pull out of the deal after local opposition.
MAYOR: JACKSONVILLE, FL
Among voters citywide
If the election for Mayor of Jacksonville were held today which candidate would you vote for: Omega Allen, Anna Brosche, Lenny Curry or Jimmy Hill?
Mayor Lenny Curry: 58%
Anna Brosche: 20%
Jimmy Hill: 4%
Omega Allen: 3%
Undecided: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: Republican incumbent Curry, who was first elected mayor four years ago, has a big re-election lead going into the final weeks of the campaign.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION, DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE VOTER COALITIONS: Morning Consult, Feb. 12 report
JACKSONVILLE: St. Pete Polls, Feb. 12
AMAZON: Siena College, Feb. 4-7
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