Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, January 23, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 36% (CBS) to 45% (Harvard-Harris, The Economist). Without these three extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 13 points higher than his approval rating…. A new Harvard-Harris poll finds that 46% of the electorate supported Trump’s recent speech on the shutdown/immigration and 54% opposed his arguments.
PRESIDENT: GENERAL ELECTION
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +12 (53-41)
Bernie Sanders (I-D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (51-41)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (48-41)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (48-42)
Beto O’Rourke (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (47-41)
Hillary Clinton (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (47-41)
Cory Booker (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (47-42)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (47-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Every Democrat on the list leads Trump in this poll. However, these trial heats say less about the Democratic challengers––many of whom remain largely unknown––than they do about Trump. Democrats are getting at least 47% of the vote against Trump, no matter who it is. Even Gillibrand––who is far from a household name in American politics, or even in some parts of her home state of New York––manages to beat the incumbent president nationwide by 5 points. Also note that no more than 42% of the electorate supports Trump’s re-election bid in any scenario, which is 4 points shy of his 2016 vote and the same as his current job approval rating…. Once again, Biden leads the pack. He beats Trump by 20 points among women, 3 points among men and 19 points among independents. The former VP holds practically all of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 supporters and shifts 8% of Trump’s supporters to the Democratic column. Biden also beats Trump 53-27 among voters who favored one of the third-party candidates in 2016.
PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Hillary Clinton: 10%
Beto O’Rourke: 9%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%
Michael Bloomberg: 5%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Not sure/other/not voting: 24%
RON’S COMMENT: As other polls are showing, Biden runs first among the Democratic field with Sanders second…. Anyone who thinks Hillary Clinton should run again will be disappointed by these numbers. As the party’s most recent presidential nominee, she’s only 1 point ahead of a losing Texas Senate candidate (O’Rourke). Another way to look at it: Clinton, who is totally known, gets 10%––which means that 90% of Democrats are NOT voting for her…. This race starts off wide open. While Biden has the early lead, there is plenty of room for lesser known candidates to emerge.
SHUTDOWN, WALL
Among voters nationwide
Would you support or oppose Congress voting today to re-open the government without funding the border wall?
Support: 57%
Oppose: 38%
Not sure: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: 84% of Democrats, 21% of Republicans and 63% of independents support Congress voting to re-open the government without funding the border wall.
Do you agree or disagree with President Trump that the government should be kept closed until he gets funding for the wall?
Agree with Trump: 35%
Disagree with Trump: 60%
Not sure: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: 88% of Democrats, 24% of Republicans and 62% of independents disagree with President Trump that the government should be kept closed until he gets funding for the wall. Note that nearly a sizable portion of Republicans disagree with Trump on this question.
CAMPAIGN COLLUSION
Among voters nationwide
Do you think that members of Donald Trump’s campaign team worked in association with Russia to help Trump win the election for President, or not?
- Think members of Trump’s campaign team worked with Russia to help Trump win the election: 45%
- Do not think members of Trump’s campaign team worked with Russia: 43%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters are closely split on whether Trump’s campaign team worked in association with Russia. Only 7% of Trump’s 2016 voters think the campaign colluded with Russia, compared to 78% of Hillary Clinton’s voters and 48% of those who voted for third-party candidates.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENT: GENERAL ELECTION, SHUTDOWN, WALL CAMPAIGN COLLUSION: PPP (D), Jan. 19-21
PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Harvard-Harris, Jan. 15-16
AS WE MOVE INTO THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, SEND A FREE SUBSCRIPTION TO FRIENDS AND CLIENTS WHO WOULD ENJOY RECEIVING IT. GO TO LUNCHTIMEPOLITICS.COM AND ENTER THEIR NAMES AND EMAILS.
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment