LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Most Think We’re in a Recession – Plenty of New Polls, Plenty of Conflicting Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, November 4, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 37% (Quinnipiac) to 45% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), putting him at 12 points net negative.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENT:  

• A lot of conflicting polls today, which drives all of us crazy. 
• Plenty of new polls from Republican-oriented outfits, especially Remington-R. Some Democrats are claiming that Republicans are intentionally pushing out polls to influence polling averages in their favor.
• In Georgia, conflicting polls all over the place. Three have Walker (R) up by 4-7 points and one has Warnock (D) up by 6. Marist has it even.
• In New Hampshire, Hassan (D) is helped by today’s poll from Emerson, she now has a tiny average lead
• In Arizona, it’s really close; ranges from even to Kelly up 3. None of the polls have Masters ahead.
• In Pennsylvania, Remington-R and Trafalgar-R have Oz up, Marist has Fetterman up.
• A Remington-R poll in North Carolina has Budd (R) up by 7, but two other polls have the race about even.

PENNSYLVANIA 

• John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +6 (51-45) Marist
• Mehmet Oz (R) over John Fetterman (D): +3 (47-44) Remington-R
• Mehmet Oz (R) over John Fetterman (D): +2 (48-46) Trafalgar-R
• Average of these polls: D +0.3

ARIZONA 

• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +3 (50-47) Marist
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +1 (48-47) Remington-R
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): even (48-48) InsiderAdvantage-R
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +1 (46-45) HighGround
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): even (48-48) Emerson
• Average of these polls: D +1

GEORGIA 

• Herschel Walker (R) and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): even (48-48) Marist 
• Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +4 (49-45) Remington-R
• Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +7 (52-45) Echelon
• Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +5 (49-44) Moore-R  
• Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +6 (49-43) SurveyUSA
• Average of these polls: R +2  

NEW HAMPSHIRE

• Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Don Bolduc (R): +4 (50-46) Emerson 
• Average of all recent polls: D +0.5  

NORTH CAROLINA 

• Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +7 (50-43) Remington-R
• Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): even (49-49) Civiqs
• Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +1 (48-47) Acti-Vote
• Average of these polls: R +2.7

FLORIDA 

• Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +8 (51-43) Siena
• Average of all recent polls: R +6.3  

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENTS: 

• Five new polls show Lake (R) ahead in Arizona by similar margins; one has Hobbs (D) up by 1.
• In Michigan, a poll taken by a GOP-oriented firm has the race tightening a bit while the EPIC-MRA survey has Whitmer’s (D) lead expanding.
• DeSantis (R) far ahead in Florida.

ARIZONA

• Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +3 (50-47) Emerson
• Katie Hobbs (D) over Kari Lake (R): +1 (49-48) Marist
• Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +3 (49-46) Remington-R
• Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +3 (51-48) InsiderAdvantage-R
• Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +2 (47-45) HighGround
• Kari Lake (R) over Katie Hobbs (D): +2 (50-48) Civiqs
• Average of these polls: R +2 

MICHIGAN  

• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +5 (51-46) Cygnal-R
• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +11 (54-43) EPIC-MRA
• Average of all recent polls: D +7

FLORIDA

• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +12 (54-42) Siena
• Average of all recent polls: R +11

RECESSION, INFLATION
Among likely voters nationwide

Do you believe the United States is currently in an economic recession? 

• Yes, we’re in a recession: 61%
• No, not in a recession: 23%
• Not sure: 15%

RON’S COMMENT: This is a big problem for Democrats––75% of Republicans, 57% of independents and 43% of Democrats say we’re in a recession, while the Biden administration says we’re not…. To make matters worse, of the 23% who think we’re not now in a recession, nearly a quarter of them think we will be in the next 12 months…. Also: Only 19% of likely voters think the inflation rate will go down over the next six months.

WHAT HAPPENS IF… REPUBLICANS TAKE CONTROL OF CONGRESS
Among likely voters nationwide

If Republicans win control of Congress, which of the following do you expect will happen? Select all that apply. 

• Government spending on social services will be reduced: 53%
• Aid to Ukraine will be reduced: 47% 
• Abortion will be banned nationally: 40% 
• Inflation will fall: 34%
• Joe Biden will be impeached: 32%
• Taxes will be cut: 29%
• There will be a government shutdown: 25% 
• COVID-19 cases will rise: 21%
• None of the above: 8%
• Other: 11% 

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
WHAT HAPPENS IF, RECESSION/INFLATION: The Economist/YouGov Poll, Oct. 29 – Nov. 1 

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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