Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 2, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls (all taken before Biden’s speech last night), ranging from 38% (Reuters) to 44% (Rasmussen). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (up 1 from Thursday), putting him at 12 points net negative, the lowest downside gap he’s had in a while.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters statewide
COLORADO
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +13 (51-38)
RON’S COMMENT: In the 2020 election, Biden beat Trump 55-42 in Colorado––which means each of them has fallen 4 points since the last election.
NORTH CAROLINA
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +2 (46-44).
RON’S COMMENT: In the 2020 election, Trump beat Biden by a little over a point in North Carolina––which means not much has changed since then.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
NEVADA
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +1 (48-47)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Masto, considered the most vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbent, posts a tiny lead. When the third candidates are included and undecideds aren’t pushed, Masto leads 44-40-4…. She beats Laxalt by 11 points among Hispanics.
- Biden’s job rating is 40% approve/58% disapprove in Nevada, a state he carried by a small margin in 2020.
FLORIDA
Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings: +3 (49-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Rubio posts a small lead in this post-primary Democratic poll. Demings has recently run two months of TV ads, which raised her name ID to 67%. Rubio’s name ID is 94%…. Demings has made progress among independents, now winning them 50-37…. She has collected $46 million so far and Rubio has hauled in $38 million.
NORTH CAROLINA
Cheri Beasley (D) over Ted Budd (R): +1 (42-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This seat is now held by a Republican, and this poll shows the Democrat in serious contention for a seat that most politicos thought the GOP would easily hold. Keep in mind: The vast majority of polls in 2020 showed the Democratic Senate candidate in North Carolina running ahead, but in the end the Republican won.
PENNSYLVANIA
John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz: +5 (49-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Fetterman’s average lead in the four most recent polls is 5.5 points.
COLORADO
Sen. Michael Bennet (D) over Joe O’Dea (R): +11 (46-35-7)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Bennet with a clear lead in this Democratic poll over his Republican challenger. Note the Libertarian is getting 7%. Bennet’s job rating is 46% approve/37% disapprove.
GEORGIA
(Emerson) Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +2 (46-44)
(Trafalgar-R) Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +1 (48-47)
RON’S COMMENT: These polls show Walker edging Warnock. Prior polling had been showing Warnock ahead.
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
FLORIDA
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +5 (51-46)
RON’S COMMENT: This post-primary Democratic poll shows DeSantis leading, but with Crist winning independents 52-39.
NEVADA
Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +2 (48-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Democratic incumbent Sisolak has a tough fight…. But when third candidates are included and undecideds aren’t pushed, Sisolak leads 41-38-10.
GEORGIA
Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +7 (51-44-2)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Kemp holds a clear lead over Abrams.
STUDENT LOANS
Among voters nationwide
Do you support or oppose the federal government canceling up to $10,000 in federal student loans for each person with student loan debt who earns less than $125,000 a year?
Support: 52%
Oppose: 41%
RON’S COMMENT: 80% of Democrats, 44% of independents and 23% of Republicans favor student debt cancellation.
BLAME FOR RISING HIGHER ED COSTS
Among voters nationwide
How much, if at all, do you blame the following for the increase in student debt in the U.S.?
% = Blame a lot/ Blame a little = Total blame
- Colleges and universities: 64%/19% = 83%
- Banks and other lending institutions: 47%/27% = 74%
- Federal government: 38%/30% = 68%
- State governments: 29%/34% = 63%
- The current job market: 21%/29% = 50%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters mostly blame colleges and universities for rising student debt. Could this mean that spending on colleges and universities will become an issue in upcoming elections?
FAVORABILITY OF COMPANIES
Among adults nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
- Amazon: 68%/26%
- Southwest Airlines: 54%/20%
- Delta Airlines: 52%/23%
- Starbucks: 47%/43%
- United Airlines: 46%/26%
- Twitter: 41%/53%
- Alaska Airlines: 39%/13%
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: Democratic Governors Association/Impact Research (D), Aug. 12-18
NEVADA: Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research, Aug. 16-24
GEORGIA: Trafalgar (R), Aug. 28-29
PENNSYLVANIA: Susquehanna, Aug. 20-28
NORTH CAROLINA: PPP (D), Aug. 29-30
COLORADO: PPP (D), Aug. 30-31
FAVORABILITY OF COMPANIES, BLAME FOR RISING HIGHER ED COSTS, STUDENT LOANS: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 28-30
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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