Your Daily Polling Update for Sunday, August 14, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 3 from July 29
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s approval rating has perked up a bit. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 45% (Rasmussen). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (down 1 from a week ago), putting him at 13 points net negative.
Among voters nationwide
Run again: Do you believe Donald Trump should run for president in the 2024 election?
- Yes, definitely: 28%
- Yes, probably: 11%
- No, probably not: 10%
- No, definitely not: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: 39% of all voters nationwide want Trump to run again, while 57% don’t…. Among Republicans, 71% want Trump to run again and 26% don’t…. Among independents, 30% want Trump to run again and 64% don’t…. This poll was conducted Wednesday, after Monday’s Mar-a-Lago search but before details of the search warrant were made public.
- Compare Trump’s numbers to Biden’s: 28% of all voters nationwide want Biden to run again, while 66% don’t…. Among Democrats, 53% want Biden to run again and 41% don’t…. Among independents, 16% want Biden to run again and 74% don’t.
Overturning 2020 election: Do you believe that Donald Trump’s alleged attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election was a crime that he should be prosecuted for, a crime that he should not be prosecuted for, or do you think it was not a crime?
- Crime he should be prosecuted for: 46%
- Crime he should NOT be prosecuted for: 7%
- Not a crime: 34%
RON’S COMMENT: 53% of all voters nationally think Trump’s alleged attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election was a crime and 46% think he should be prosecuted…. Only about a third think it was not a crime…. 20% of Republicans think it was a crime, and 11% think he should be prosecuted for it.
Motivation for search: Do you think [the] search warrant on former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort is primarily due to:
- Evidence that he committed a crime: 49%
- Motivation to damage his political career: 39%
- Don’t know: 13%
RON’S COMMENT: 81% of Democrats, 48% of independents and 16% of Republicans say the search was about finding evidence that he committed a crime, while 11% of Democrats, 37% of independents and 69% of Republicans say the search was politically motivated…. This poll was conducted Wednesday, after Monday’s Mar-a-Lago search but before details of the search warrant were made public…. We should get a torrent of new polling data this week.
PRESIDENT: 2024 REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Among Republican voters nationwide
- Donald Trump: 56%
- Ron DeSantis: 18%
- Mike Pence: 8%
- Nikki Haley: 2%
- Liz Cheney: 2%
- Mitt Romney: 2%
- Ted Cruz: 2%
- Larry Hogan: 1%
- Marco Rubio: 1%
- Chris Christie: 1%
- Tim Scott: 1%
- Mike Pompeo: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll of Republican primary voters nationwide was conducted Wednesday, after Monday’s Mar-a-Lago search but before details of the search warrant were made public.
WYOMING HOUSE AT-LARGE: 2022
Among Republican primary voters statewide
Republican U.S. House at-large primary
Harriet Hageman: 57%
Rep. Liz Cheney: 28%
Others: less than 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Hageman continues to post a wide lead over incumbent Cheney in the GOP primary in Wyoming…. From poll report: Among voters who identify as Democrats and likely primary voters, “roughly half say they will vote in the Republican primary. Among this group, Cheney received 98 percent support. Among Republican likely voters in the GOP primary, Cheney is polling at roughly 15 percent. Among likely voters in the primary who identify as independent, support is split, with 41 percent supporting Hageman and 43 percent supporting Cheney.” Of all the likely voters in the primary, “only 8 percent identify as Democrats, and 21 percent identify as independents.”
10 MOST TRUSTED U.S. UNIVERSITIES
Among adults nationwide
Based on a brand survey of 135 universities conducted by Morning Consult:
- Johns Hopkins: 47.63
- Duke: 39.99
- Notre Dame: 38.17
- Cornell: 36.86
- MIT: 36.56
- Stanford: 34.66
- Yale: 34.4
- Harvard: 34.16
- Baylor: 33.78
- Princeton: 33.41
RON’S COMMENT: Johns Hopkins ranks as the most trusted university brand among all adults nationwide. Also: Among Blacks, Georgetown ranks first…. Among Hispanics, Harvard ranks first…. Among parents, Princeton ranks first…. Among employers, Johns Hopkins is tops…. Excerpts from the study:
- While more U.S. adults tend to automatically trust higher education institutions than not, there are some notable demographic differences.
- Men are 10 percentage points more likely than women to say they don’t trust U.S. colleges and universities.
- Among generational groups, the level of trust decreases among younger cohorts. Gen Z respondents are 14 percentage points less likely to trust U.S. higher education compared with baby boomers.
- The level of trust in American colleges and universities is split along political affiliations. Only 18% of Democrats distrust U.S. higher education institutions compared with 43% of Republicans and 33% of independents.
- One of the key reasons Johns Hopkins University claimed the top spot in our Most Trusted Universities ranking is the public service it provided by publishing detailed COVID-19 case data during the early stages of the pandemic.
- But Johns Hopkins also has less of a trust gap along party lines compared with other universities, suggesting the pandemic — a divisive issue to many Americans — wasn’t the only thing that buoyed trust in Johns Hopkins this year.
- While universities have long been framed as too liberal, the political divisiveness seems to have widened with the last few additions to the U.S. Supreme Court. For example, the court’s recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and the upcoming hearing on race-conscious affirmative action are cases that intertwine sociocultural shifts and political beliefs with the trust people place in higher education institutions.
- This shift in the larger operating context suggests that universities need to become more vigilant when it comes to understanding the potential impact of political divisiveness on brand trust.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP, 2024 NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult, Aug. 10
WYOMING: University of Wyoming’s Survey and Analysis Center, July 25-Aug. 6
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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