LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Liz Cheney – Recession – Abortion – Boris – Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, Washington, Texas

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, July 16, 2022

Up 1 from Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on eight polls, ranging from 33% (NYT/Siena) to 42% (Rasmussen). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (down 1 from Tuesday), putting him at 18 points net negative.

Among voters statewide

Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +3 (43-40-13)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden carried Nevada in 2020, beating Trump by 2 points. But this poll shows Trump now leads Biden in the state by 3 points. Also note that 13% of voters want to vote for someone other than these two and another 4% are undecided…. This poll shows that 46% of voters in Nevada think Trump should be criminally charged for encouraging supporters to attack the Capitol on Jan. 6, while 43% think he should not be charged.
Ron DeSantis (R) over Joe Biden (D): +5 (43-38-11)
RON’S COMMENT: DeSantis beats Biden in Nevada and by a bigger margin than Trump.

Among voters statewide

Republican primary
Harriet Hageman: 52%
U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney: 30%
Anthony Bouchard: 5%
Others: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: In addition to Cheney falling short in the GOP primary, 63% of Wyoming voters disapprove of her decision to serve on the Jan. 6 committee, 54% are less likely to vote for her because of her performance on the committee and 61% say her opposition to Trump has affected her ability to deal with important state issues…. It should be noted that Cheney has improved her standing since early June when she was losing 56-28…. Trump has endorsed Hageman, who is a lawyer and former candidate for governor. Bouchard is a state senator…. Primary is Aug. 16.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +3 (50-47)
RON’S COMMENT: Democratic incumbent Warnock leads, despite President Biden’s low approval rating in the state (34%). One reason is that Warnock’s personal popularity, which isn’t that good, is clearly better than Walker’s: Warnock’s rating is 47% favorable/47% unfavorable. Walker is 41% favorable/49% unfavorable.
Sen. Patty Murray (D) over Tiffany Smiley (R): +18 (51-33)
RON’S COMMENT: Frontrunner Murray maintains a solid lead. She wins Democrats 87-3. Smiley wins Republicans 83-3. Independents split 38-38.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto over Adam Laxalt (R): +3 (44-41-6)
RON’S COMMENT: Cortez Masto is viewed as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents. This poll shows her edging her GOP challenger, although the poll has her receiving only 51% of Blacks and 46% of Hispanics.

Among voters statewide

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +5 (49-44)
RON’S COMMENT: While Abbott remains the favorite, polling shows his lead to be fairly modest.
Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +7 (52-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Kemp’s rating is 50% favorable/45% unfavorable. Abrams is 46% favorable/50% unfavorable.
Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) over Joe Lombardo (R): +4 (44-40-9)
RON’S COMMENT: Nevada appears to be a potential problem for Democrats in the gubernatorial and Senate races. The 9% saying they will vote for someone else in this race may be key to how it ultimately goes.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +11 (51-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Dixon has become the GOP’s leading primary candidate in the polls, but incumbent Whitmer posts an 11-point lead over her…. Whitmer’s job rating is 53% approve/40% disapprove…. The state’s primary is Aug. 2.

JAN 6th
Among voters nationwide

Do you think Donald Trump did anything illegal around the events of January 6, 2021? 
Yes: 45%
No: 39%
Not sure: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: 77% of Democrats, 13% of Republicans and 36% of independents think Trump did something illegal.

Among voters nationwide

Do you believe the United States is currently in an economic recession? 
Yes: 59%
No: 21%
Not sure: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: 42% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans and 60% of independents think we’re in a recession.
[if answered “no” or “not sure” to the above question] How likely do you think it is that there will be an economic recession during the next twelve months? 
Very/somewhat likely: 57%
Not very likely/not at all likely: 22%
Nor sure: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: Of voters who do NOT think we’re now in a recession, 51% of Democrats, 65% of Republicans and 48% of independents think we will be in one within a year.

Among voters nationwide

Would you call yourself “pro-life” or “pro-choice”? 
Pro-life: 28%
Pro-choice: 37%
Both pro-life and pro-choice: 23%
Neither: 8%
Not sure: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Two months ago, this poll had almost the same results: 28% called themselves pro-life, 36% pro-choice and 23% both pro-life and pro-choice. 
Do you approve or disapprove of the Supreme Court’s ruling that there is no constitutional right to an abortion? 
Strongly approve: 30%
Somewhat approve: 11%
Somewhat disapprove: 9%
Strongly disapprove: 40%
RON’S COMMENT: 41% approve of the Court’s recent decision overturning Roe, while 49% disapprove of it…. 47% of men, 32% of women, 16% of Democrats, 39% of independents and 69% of Republicans approve of the decision.

Among U.S. voters nationwide

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
Favorable: 23%
Unfavorable: 45%
RON’S COMMENT: As he prepares to leave office, Republicans think a bit better of Johnson than do Democrats or independents (30% vs. 22% vs. 17%).

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MICHIGAN: Glengariff Group, July 5-8
NEVADA: The Hill/Emerson, July 7-10
TEXAS: Univ. of Houston, June 27-July 7
WYOMING: Mason Dixon, July 7-11
GEORGIA: Fabrizio (R)/Anzalone (D), July 5-11
WASHINGTON: SurveyUSA, Julu 6-10

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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