LUNCHTIME POLITICS: How did the polls do in Tuesday’s primary? – Latest in Connecticut, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri – Ukraine

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, May 20, 2022

Down 1 from Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 44% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Tuesday), putting him at 13 points net negative. 

  • Raising eyebrows: The Quinnipiac poll shows Biden’s approval rating has dropped to 26% among Hispanic voters. The poll also shows Biden’s approval is 32% among Whites and 63% among Blacks. In the 2020 election, Biden won 65% of the Hispanic vote.

May 17 primary

Republican Senate primary current results (with 99% in): Oz 31%, McCormick 31%, Barnette 25%, others 13%

How the final four polls did:

  • Polls missed Oz’s vote by an average of 3.8 points. Osage missed it the most, by 7 points.
  • Polls missed McCormick’s vote the most, by an average of 11.3 points. Susquehanna missed it by a whopping 20 points; it had McCormick collapsing when, apparently, he was in fierce competition for first place. Osage is the only poll that had McCormick ahead.
  • Polls came closest to Barnette’s vote, missing it by an average of only 1.5 points. 

Here were the final reported polls taken between May 12 and 16:

  • Trafalgar Group (R): Oz 29% (off 2), McCormick 22% (off 9), Barnette 27% (off 2). 
  • Emerson College: Oz 28% (off 3), McCormick 21% (off 10), Barnette 24% (off 1).
  • Susquehanna (R): Oz 28% (off 3), McCormick 11% (off 20), Barnette 27% (off 2). 
  • Osage Research (R): Oz 24% (off 7), McCormick 25% (off 6), Barnette 24% (off 1). 

In fairness to the polls:  

  • Just about every poll has an undecided vote that, at least in part, is ultimately distributed to candidates in the actual election. This may explain why some polls had candidates getting lower percentages than they received in the eventual vote totals.
  • Even polls that are taken in the final days of a campaign don’t always catch last minute voter shifts due to events that occurred after survey interviewing was completed. This may also explain why some polls were off. 
  • Of course, some polls just get it wrong.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D) over Themis Klarides (R): +10 (50-40)
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D) over Leora Levy (R): +16 (52-36)
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D) over Peter Lumaj (R): +16 (51-35)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Blumenthal leads all three possible GOP challengers in this Democratic state, although the trial heat against Klarides, the former Minority Leader of the state House, is most competitive. Handicappers rate the seat safe or solid Democratic.
Eric Greitens: 26%
Eric Schmitt: 17%
Vicky Hartzler: 11%
Others: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: Polls in this race have bounced around like a ping pong ball. Since late March, two polls had Schmitt ahead, two had Hartzler ahead and two had Greitens in the lead. GOP strategists fear that Greitens, who resigned the governorship in 2018, may not be able to win the general election in this usually red state because of personal scandals. Primary is Aug. 2.
Emerson / Cygnal = Average
Katie Britt: 37% / 31% = 34
Mo Brooks: 29% / 29% = 29
Michael Durant: 29% / 24% = 26.5
RON’C COMMENT: Still a three-way battle. Despite Trump’s withdrawal of his endorsement for Brooks, the GOP congressman has gained 13 points in the Emerson poll since March…. If nobody breaks 50% in the May 24 primary, there will be a June 21 runoff. This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R)…. Democrat Will Boyd is leading the Democratic field with 26%; he’s followed by Brandaun Dean 15% and Lanny Jackson 11%, according to the Emerson poll.

Among voters statewide

Gov. Ned Lamont (D) over Bob Stefanowski (R): +13 (51-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Lamont narrowly defeated businessman Stefanowski in 2018 (49-46).
Gov. Brian Kemp: 60% 
David Perdue: 28%
Others: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Kemp keeps widening his lead over Trump-endorsed Perdue…. Will this be Trump’s biggest loss yet?…. This polling also shows that 65% of GOP voters say it is “extremely important” that Republicans nominate a candidate who can win in November, when they face Democrat Stacey Abrams…. Kemp’s rating among Georgia Republicans is 72% favorable/26% unfavorable. Perdue is 56% favorable/39% unfavorable…. Primary is May 24.
Emerson / Cygnal = Average
Gov. Kay Ivey: 53% / 48% = 50.5
Tim James: 21% / 16% = 18.5
Lunda Blanchard: 13% / 13% = 13
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Ivey holds a wide lead over James, but is hovering around the 50% mark she must clear to avoid a runoff…. Primary is May 24…. Yolanda Flowers is currently the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.

Among U.S. adults nationwide

Do you think the United States is doing too much, too little, or about the right amount to help Ukraine?
Too much: 21%
Too little: 29%
About right: 42%
RON’S COMMENT: 34% of Republicans, 64% of Democrats and 38% of independents say “about right.” …. In addition, this poll finds that 75% of voters are either “very” or “somewhat” concerned that the Ukraine situation will lead to a wider war involving the U.S.

Among adults nationwide

Biggest worry: As you think about your financial situation, which one of the following economic issues worries you the most right now: the price of gas and consumer goods, your job situation, the stock market, or the cost of housing or rent? 

  • Price of gas/goods: 55%
  • Cost of housing/rent: 26%
  • Stock market: 10%
  • Your job situation: 4%

RON’S COMMENT: Democrats are less likely to say the price of gas and goods (44%) than Republicans (69%). Republicans are less likely to say the cost of housing/rent (15%) than Democrats (34%). 
Presidential control over inflation: How much control do you think a president has over inflation; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? 

  • A lot: 29%
  • Some: 38%
  • Only a little: 23%
  • None at all: 10%

RON’S COMMENT: Two-thirds of voters say “a president” has a lot or some control over inflation. Even 44% of Democrats say so.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
GEORGIA: Fox News, May 12-16
ALABAMA: Emerson College/The Hill, May 15-16; Cygnal, May 15-16
MISSOURI: SurveyUSA, May 11-15
CONNECTICUT: Emerson College, May 10-11

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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