Your Daily Polling Update for Sunday, April 10, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from Wednesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 45% (Fox News). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 1 from Wednesday), putting him at 11 points net negative.
FRANCE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2022
Among voters in France
Final average of last three polls
Presidential first round:
Emmanuel Macron: 27%
Marine LePen: 24%
Jean-Luc Antoine Pierre Mélenchon: 18%
Eric Zemmour: 9%
Valerie Pecresse: 8%
Others: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: LePen has been moving up in recent days, tightening the gap with President Macron. LePen’s followers hope their candidate overtakes Macron, despite the incumbent’s continued, but narrowed, polling lead…. Leftist Mélenchon has improved his standing as well…. First round voting is today…. Second round voting is April 24…. In the latest polling average for the two-way runoff, Macron’s margin has also narrowed, but he’s still beating LePen 52-48. Macron beats Mélenchon by a 58-42 margin, which has closed slightly since last week.
U.S. PRESIDENT 2024
Among voters statewide
NORTH CAROLINA
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
Donald Trump: 45%
Ron DeSantis: 26%
Nikki Haley: 8%
Mike Pence: 6%
Ted Cruz: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump beats the GOP field in North Carolina 45-42 with 13% undecided. Even though DeSantis trails the better known former president, he posts impressive numbers.
SENATE 2022
Among voters statewide
GEORGIA
GENERAL ELECTION
Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +4 (49-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Warnock is the Democratic incumbent seeking a full Senate term. Walker, supported by Trump and other top Republicans, is a former football player and winner of the 1982 Heisman Trophy…. Walker continues to lead the GOP primary by a wide, but somewhat diminished, margin.
PENNSYLVANIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
David McCormick: 27%
Mehmet Oz: 21%
Jeff Bartos: 17%
Kathy Barnette: 14%
Carla Sands: 11%
Others: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R)…. McCormick and Oz have been jockeying for first place. This poll has McCormick ahead and also shows Bartos moving up with Barnette not too far behind. Since the poll was taken, Trump has endorsed Oz. Nonetheless, McCormick is supported by a number of Trump’s White House advisers, including Kellyanne Conway, Hope Hicks, Stephen Miller, Larry Kudlow and Mike Pompeo.
NORTH CAROLINA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Ted Budd: 34%
Pat McCrory: 24%
Mark Walker: 10%
Others: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: Another poll showing Trump-endorsed Budd leading the primary. Unlike the previous poll we reported, which had Budd ahead by 16 points, this one has his lead at a narrower 10 points….The Senate primary is May 12…. Here is an interesting poll question asked of North Carolina Republicans:
Candidate comparisons with Trump: When it comes to the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate and their similarity to former President Donald Trump, which of the following statements most closely matches your opinion?
- Prefer a nominee who is different in tone and style [from Trump], but similar on the issues: 42%
- Prefer a nominee who is similar in tone, style, and on the issues [with Trump]: 42%
- Prefer a nominee who is similar in tone and style [with Trump], but different on the issues: 1%
- Prefer a nominee who is different in tone, style, and on the issues [from Trump]: 11%
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
GEORGIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Gov. Brian Kemp: 43%
David Perdue: 32%
Others: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Kemp holds a lead over Trump-endorsed Perdue in the primary, his main primary challenger. The winner will face Democrat Stacey Abrams in November.
GEORGIA
GENERAL ELECTION
Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +7 (51-44)
David Perdue (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +5 (49-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Both Kemp and Perdue lead Democrat Abrams, but Kemp does a little better.
PENNSYLVANIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Lou Barletta: 26%
Doug Mastriano: 22%
David White: 14%,
Bill McSwain: 12%
Jake Corman: 8%
Melissa Hart: 7%
Others: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: This gubernatorial primary race is mostly a fight between Barletta and Mastriano for the GOP nomination. Barletta wins suburban and urban voters. Mastriano wins rural voters…. Where are the Trumpers? Barletta is supported by Steve Bannon and Mastriano has Michael Flynn’s support. Kellyanne Conway is working for Corman…. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is term-limited…. AG Josh Shapiro is the Democratic candidate.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable / Unfavorable
Chris Rock: 51%/29%
Will Smith: 35%/55%
Madison Cawthorn: 16%/30%
Tulsi Gabbard: 31%/29%
Sarah Palin: 39%/48%
Hunter Biden: 22%/57%
Ginni Thomas: 16%/30%
RON’S COMMENT: All these people have made news recently….
- Looks like Rock came out ahead of Smith in the famous slap incident.
- U.S. Rep. Cawthorn, who publicly ruminated about secret escapades of fellow Republican members of Congress, isn’t doing so good among all voters, although among only Republicans he’s net-positive, 23% favorable/16% unfavorable.
- Palin, who is running for Congress, rates net-negative nationwide––but, by party, she’s 70% favorable/21% unfavorable among Republicans, 16% favorable/71% unfavorable among Democrats and 31% favorable/48% unfavorable among independents.
- Hunter Biden rates 9% favorable/84% unfavorable among Republicans, 42% favorable/25% unfavorable among Democrats and 9% favorable/63% unfavorable among independents.
- Ginni Thomas, political activist and wife of the Supreme Court Justice, is 24% favorable/12% unfavorable among Republicans, 13% favorable/47% unfavorable among Democrats and 11% favorable/26% unfavorable among independents.
- Gabbard is a former member of Congress and Democratic presidential candidate who bucked the party’s establishment. Her rating among Republicans is now much better (38% favorable/19% unfavorable) than her rating among Democrats (20% favorable/41% unfavorable). A former vice chair of the DNC, in 2016 she endorsed Bernie Sanders in the presidential primaries and in 2020 she endorsed Biden after she withdrew from the race. She was not invited to the 2020 Democratic convention, but this year was invited to speak at C-PAC.
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THE CORPORATE WARRIOR
By James Farwell
Wondering how Steve Jobs defied market research to run a Super Bowl ad that turned Apple around? Or how Michael Jordan helped Nike use a hero-villain theme in its inspiring ads? Wonder how some college kids used their savings and imagination to grow start-up companies into billion dollar “unicorn” successes? Or the truth behind the EAGLE CLAW failed rescue mission of our hostages in Iran? In THE CORPORATE WARRIOR, author James Farwell interviewed Gen. David Petreaus and Adm. Jim Stavridis and many flag officers, and applies military strategy to the business world. A great read, order on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3rvVRYt
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA: Emerson College/The Hill, April 3-4
NORTH CAROLINA: Civitas/Cygnal (R), April 1-3
GEORGIA: The Hill/Emerson, April 1-4
FAVORABILITY RATINGS: The Economist/YouGov, April 2-5
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, RonSOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA: Emerson College/The Hill, April 3-4
NORTH CAROLINA: Civitas/Cygnal (R), April 1-3
GEORGIA: The Hill/Emerson, April 1-4
FAVORABILITY RATINGS: The Economist/YouGov, April 2-5
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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