LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Kemp, Perdue vs. Abrams – Georgia, New Hampshire Senate – Sinema, Kelly Tested

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, January 28, 2022

Same as Wednesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 38% (Monmouth) to 42% (Rasmussen, Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (down 1 from Wednesday), putting him at 14 points net negative.

SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide

(ACJ) Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +3 (47-44)
(Quinnipiac) Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +1 (49-48)
RON’S COMMENT: This will be a key contest with national implications. Republican Walker leads both polls by small margins. The Quinnipiac poll is slightly more recent…. Internals from Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll–– 

  • Incumbent Warnock’s job rating is 44% approve/35% disapprove. That’s about the same as the state’s other Democratic senator, John Ossoff: 43% approve/35% disapprove, who is not up for re-election this year.
  • Walker is winning Republicans 93-3. Warnock wins Democrats 86-6 and women 49-40. Walker wins Whites 69-21 and Warnock wins Blacks 84-11.
  • Walker, supported by Trump and other top Republicans, is a former football player and winner of the 1982 Heisman Trophy.
  • Here’s a bit of disastrous news for President Biden: His job rating in Georgia, a state he carried in 2020, is now down to 34% approve/62% disapprove. 
  • The Quinnipiac poll shows Walker crushing his Republican primary opponents: Walker 81%, Gary Black 6%, others 3%.

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +7 (43-36)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Chuck Morse (R): +14 (41-27)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Kevin Smith (R): +18 (42-24)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Hassan was lucky that Republican Gov. Chris Sununu decided not to run against her; he was leading in some polls. Though Hassan tops all three GOP challengers, her numbers are fairly low (41-43), which means as her rivals get better known the race will likely tighten up. Currently, Bolduc is known by 67% of voters, Morse by 53% and Smith by 41%. Fewer voters than that know enough about each one to even rate them. 

  • Hassan’s job rating is 45% approve/51% disapprove.
  • Biden, who won New Hampshire in 2020 by 7 points, now polls 41% approve/58% disapprove in the state, which could make him a heavy millstone around Hassan’s neck. 
  • U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D)’s job rating is 48% approve/48% disapprove.
  • U.S. House races in New Hampshire––Incumbent U.S. Reps. Chris Pappas (D) and Annie Kuster (D) appear potentially vulnerable in their re-election bids this year. From the poll report: “Only 38% of First Congressional District voters believe that Pappas has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, while only 33% of Second Congressional District voters believe that Kuster deserves re-election. These are low floors of incumbent support that indicate the potential for close races against credible challengers, with the caveat that new districts have yet to be adopted.” In terms of overall partisan orientation, the First District usually leans Republican and the Second District leans Democratic.

Among voters statewide

U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Favorable: 39%
Unfavorable: 48%
U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (D)
Favorable: 45%
Unfavorable: 44%
RON’S COMMENT: Kelly is on the ballot this November and faces a competitive race. Sinema doesn’t run until 2024, but she’s received tons of national media coverage in recent months…. Internals: 

  • Sinema’s favorable rating among Republicans is higher than among fellow Democrats or independents in her home state: 44% vs. 42% and 30%. Her numbers sort of look like John McCain’s once did––for a while he polled better among Democrats than fellow Republicans in Arizona.
  • Kelly’s favorable rating among fellow Democrats is much than higher than among Republicans: 74% vs. 21%.

Among voters statewide

(ACJ) Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacy Abrams (D): +7 (48-41)
(Quinnipiac) Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +2 (49-47)
(ACJ) David Perdue (R) over Stacy Abrams (D): +4 (47-43)
(Quinnipiac) David Perdue (R) and Stacey Abrams (D): even (48-48)
RON’S COMMENT: In 2018, Abrams lost to Kemp by 1.4 points…. Perdue, the former U.S. senator who was defeated in 2020, is opposing incumbent Kemp in the GOP primary. Both polls show Kemp is somewhat stronger than Perdue in the general election against Democrat Abrams. Perdue is the Trump candidate…. Poll internals from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll:  

  • Kemp is winning Republicans 93-2 and independents 43-33. Abrams wins Democrats 86-5 and women 51-40. Kemp wins Whites 70-21 and Abrams wins Blacks 76-12.
  • Kemp’s job rating is 48% approve/43% disapprove among all voters and his approval is 72% among Republicans, which spells trouble for challenger Perdue in the Republican primary.
  • Biden’s weak job rating is Georgia, 34% approve/62% disapprove, is a big problem for fellow Democrat Abrams. 
  • Quinnipiac finds Kemp leading Perdue 43-36 in the GOP primary, with others receiving 14%.

Among adults nationwide

Would you rather see the Republicans or the Democrats in control of Congress, or doesn’t this matter to you? 
Republicans: 50%
Democrats: 43%
Does not matter: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: From the pollster’s report–– 

  • “Republicans have a default advantage heading into the midterms. Simply put, they are not currently in power. Voters who don’t see much difference in the parties are going to be a key factor. That means the prospect of changing the congressional majority does not necessarily translate into hope that Washington will get any better.” 
  • “Just 19% of the public approves of the job Congress is currently doing. Almost 3 in 4 (74%) disapprove – including 81% of Republicans and 59% of Democrats. Just 24% of Americans feel the country is headed in the right direction. Another warning sign for the party in power is a shift in self-reported partisan affiliation. Currently, 26% of American adults identify themselves as Democrats, a number that ranged from 30% to 34% in Monmouth polling throughout last year. Republican identifiers currently stand at 31% of the population, which is up from a range of 23% to 27% in 2021. Moreover, when these numbers are combined with independents who say they lean toward either party, Republicans (51%) have a decided advantage over Democrats (41%).”

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
GEORGIA: Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Univ. of Georgia, Jan. 13-24; Quinnipiac Univ., Jan. 19-24
ARIZONA: OH Predictive Insights, Jan. 11-13
NEW HAMPSHIRE: St. Anselm College/NHIOP, Jan. 11-12
GENERIC BALLOT: CONGRESS: Monmouth Univ., Jan. 20-24

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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