Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, December 17, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 3 since last week
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s average approval rating has perked up a bit (+3), but so has his disapproval rating (+2). Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Rasmussen) to 48% (CNN). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (up 2 from last week), putting him at 7 points net negative.
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION 2024
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Without Biden: If Joe Biden did not run for president in the 2024 election, for whom would you vote in a Democratic presidential primary?
- Kamala Harris: 31%
- Pete Buttigieg: 11%
- Elizabeth Warren: 8%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8%
- Cory Booker: 5%
- Amy Klobuchar: 3%
- Gavin Newsom: 3%
- Roy Cooper: 1%
- Eric Adams: 1%
- Gina Raimondo: 1%
- Someone else: 2%
- Not sure: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: Harris runs first in this field, but she’s only winning about 3 in 10 Democrats, which means nearly 7 in 10 are shopping for somebody else. She was once seen as the likely heir apparent should Biden not run again; her position has weakened lately…. Note that Buttigieg is second, but a lackluster second…. Also note that AOC does better than two U.S. senators who previously ran for president, the current governors of California and North Carolina, a Biden cabinet member and the new Mayor of New York City.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +6 (46-40)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Chuck Morse (R): +8 (46-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Now that Gov. Chris Sununu (R) and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) took themselves out of the race, incumbent Hassan has a little more breathing room––but she’s still locked in a potentially competitive fight…. Bolduc is a former army Special Forces brigadier general and a 2020 Senate candidate. Morse is president of the state Senate…. This poll, taken by a Republican-oriented firm, also finds Donald Trump leading either President Biden or VP Harris by 48-46 margins in a 2024 trial heat. Biden carried New Hampshire in 2020 by a 53-45 margin.
GOVERNOR 2022
Among voters statewide
WISCONSIN
Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Mike Murphy (R): +11 (47-36-5)
Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Michelle Benson (R): +12 (47-35-4)
Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Scott Jensen (R): +12 (48-36-5)
Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Paul Gazelka (R): +13 (47-34-5)
Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Mike Marti (R): +13 (47-34)
Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Neil Shah (R): +17 (48-31)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Walz leads all rivals by double digits. However, none of these Republicans have much statewide name ID, so they have growth potential. Gazelka, the best-known candidate opposing Walz, leads by 24 in Western Minnesota and by 10 in the Northeast. Walz leads by 29 in the Southern part of the state and by 20 in the Twin Cities area…. Gazelka and Benson are state senators and Jensen is a former state senator. Murphy is mayor of Lexington. Others could still get in the race…. The governor’s rating is 47% favorable/39% unfavorable/11% neutral…. In 2018, Walz won 54-42.
BIDEN AND THE ECONOMY
Among voters
Rating Biden’s policies: Do you think Joe Biden’s policies have:
- Improved economic conditions in the country: 30%
- Worsened economic conditions in the country: 45%
- Had no effect on economic conditions in the country: 25%
Rating conditions: How would you rate the economic conditions in the country today?
- Good: 37%
- Poor: 63%
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers are not good for the “in” party.
Major economic problems: How much of a problem do you think each of the following is for the nation’s economy?
% = Major problem
- The rising cost of food and other everyday items: 80%
- Disruption in the nation’s supply chain: 79%
- The rising cost of housing: 77%
- The rising cost of gas: 70%
- Labor shortages: 67%
- Government spending: 67%
- The coronavirus pandemic: 65%
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats need to get their heads out of the sand and realize that inflation and supply chain disruptions are two gigantic issues that are in the process of bringing them down. Look at these numbers:
- 70% of Americans in this CNN poll say the U.S. government is doing “too little” to deal with the supply chain problem and 72% say the same about inflation.
- Crime is another issue that Democrats, as the “in” party, can’t ignore. This CNN poll finds that 76% of Americans think the U.S. government is doing “too little” to reduce violent crime.
SPENDING BILL AND INFLATION
Among voters nationwide
Do you think Biden’s proposed multi-trillion dollar social spending plan for programs such as health care, childcare and climate change would help lower inflation, push inflation higher, or not make much difference?
- Help lower inflation: 21%
- Push inflation higher: 46%
- Not make much difference: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like most voters aren’t buying the Democratic message that Biden’s spending bill will help relieve the inflation problem.
UKRAINE
Among voters nationwide
Which is more important for the U.S.?
- To take a strong stand so that Russia does not take over Ukraine by force: 60%
- For the U.S. to maintain good relations with Russia: 19%
- Not sure: 22%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters prefer getting tough with Russia …. 69% of Biden’s supporters and 58% of Trump’s supporters agree. Trump’s supporters are twice as likely to say “maintain good relations with Russia” (22-11)…. This poll finds that only 37% of voters believe the U.S. should use military force to protect Ukraine. Also, 44% of Biden’s supporters and 34% of Trump’s supporters are prepared to use military force.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION 2024: Politico/Morning Consult, Dec. 11-13
MINNESOTA: KSTP/SurveyUSA, Dec. 2-6
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Trafalgar (R), Dec. 10-12
BIDEN AND THE ECONOMY: CNN, Dec. 8-12
SPENDING BILL AND INFLATION: Fox Business/Beacon (D)/Shaw (R), Dec. 11-14
UKRAINE: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 12-14
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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