LUNCHTIME POLITICS: How Did the Polls Do in Virginia, New Jersey?

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, November 4, 2021

HOW DID THE POLLS DO?

VIRGINIA: GOVERNOR 2021
Final round of polls vs. actual results

FINAL ROUND OF POLLS

• (Fox 5 DC/Insider Advantage) Glenn Youngkin (R) over Terry McAuliffe (D): +2 (47-45)
• (Trafalgar-R) Glenn Youngkin (R) over Terry McAuliffe (D): +2 (49-47)
• (Echelon) Glenn Youngkin (R) over Terry McAuliffe (D): +3 (49-46)
• (Research Co.) Glenn Youngkin (R) over Terry McAuliffe (D): +1 (48-47)
• (Fox News) Glenn Youngkin (R) over Terry McAuliffe (D): +8 (53-45)
• (Roanoke College) Terry McAuliffe (D) and Glenn Youngkin (R): +1 (47-46)
• (Washington Post) Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +1 (49-48)
• (Targoz) Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +3 (50-47)

RON’S COMMENT: The latest election results put Republican Youngkin ahead with a margin of 2.5 points over Democrat McAuliffe. The final polling average we reported had Youngkin ahead by 1.7 points and the final average of the polls listed above had Youngkin ahead by 1.4 points. 

• These polls came closest: Fox 5 DC/Insider Advantage, Trafalgar-R and Echelon (each off by 0.5 points).
• This poll came close: Research Co. (off by 1.5 points)
• This poll showed Youngkin ahead, but by the most inflated margin: Fox News(off by 5.5 points).
• These polls put McAuliffe ahead by 1-point: Roanoke College, Washington Post/Schar (each off by 3.5 points).
• This poll showed McAuliffe ahead by the widest margin: Targoz (off by 5.5 points).

NEW JERSEY: GOVERNOR 2021
Final round of polls vs. actual results

FINAL ROUND OF POLLS 

• (Rutgers) Gov. Phil Murphy (D) over Jack Ciattarelli (R): +8 (50-42)
• (Research Co.) Gov. Phil Murphy (D) over Jack Ciattarelli (R): +6 (50-44)
• (Trafalgar-R) Gov. Phil Murphy (D) over Jack Ciattarelli (R): +4 (49-45)
• (Fairleigh Dickinson) Gov. Phil Murphy (D) over Jack Ciattarelli (R): +9 (53-44)
• (Stockton) Gov. Phil Murphy (D) over Jack Ciattarelli (R): +9 (50-41)

RON’S COMMENT: The latest election results put Democrat Murphy ahead with a margin of 1.6 points over Republican Ciattarelli. (There are still votes to count which may change the margin.) The final polling average we reported had Murphy ahead by 7.6 points and the final average of the polls listed above had Murphy ahead by 7.2 points…. While every poll showed the eventual winner, Murphy, running ahead, and most polls found a tightening of the race over the past month, they didn’t detect the full extent of the late movement to Ciattarelli…. The last round of New Jersey polling was similar to presidential and Senate polls in the 2020 election in that they pegged the Democrat’s vote exactly right (Murphy poll average = 50.4% vs. Murphy actual vote = 50.4%), but they underestimated the Republican candidate’s strength (Ciattarelli poll average = 43.2% vs. Ciattarelli actual vote = 48.8%) and, as such, painted an inaccurate picture of the race. 

• This poll came closest: Trafalgar-R (off by 2.4 points)
• These polls put Murphy ahead by wider margins: Research Co. (off by 4.4 points), Rutgers (off by 6.4 points)
• These polls showed Murphy ahead by the most inflated margins: Fairleigh Dickinson, Stockton (both off by 7.4 points)

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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