Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, October 21, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 2 since Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s average approval rating hits a new low today…. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 37% (Grinnell/Selzer) to 45% (Economist, Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Tuesday), putting him 10 points net negative.
VIRGINIA: GOVERNOR 2021
Among voters statewide
Terry McAuliffe (D) and Glenn Youngkin (R): even (46-46)
RON’S COMMENT: This is the second poll within a week showing a tie. Today’s numbers are among all registered voters. When the pollster applies its turnout models, one shows McAuliffe leading by 3 points and one shows Youngkin leading by 3 points. The average of the four latest polls gives McAuliffe a slim 2-point lead…. Here are excerpts from the Monmouth Univ. poll report:
- “The biggest swing in support from Monmouth’s last poll comes from independent voters, registering a 48% to 39% lead for Youngkin now compared with a 37% to 46% deficit in September.”
- “Youngkin has also cut into McAuliffe’s advantage with women voters. The Democrat currently has a narrow edge among women (47% to 43%), down from a sizable 14-point lead last month (52% to 38%).”
- “Youngkin has increased his support in the reddest part of the commonwealth, western Virginia, where he currently leads McAuliffe by 66% to 27% (up from 58% to 34% in September). At the same time, McAuliffe has slipped slightly in heavily-blue Northern Virginia. He leads there by 58% to 34%. This is down only slightly from his 58% to 29% lead last month, however, incumbent Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam won this key region by 35 points (67% to 32%) in 2017. McAuliffe holds small leads in both the eastern Tidewater (48% to 42%) and central I-95/Richmond (48% to 41%) areas.”
NEW HAMPSHIRE: SENATE 2022
Among voters statewide
Chris Sununu (R) over Sen. Maggie Hassan (D): +3 (45-42-6)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Kelly Ayotte (R): +1 (44-43-7)
RON’S COMMENT: Democratic incumbent Sen. Hassan has her hands full for re-election. The state’s GOP governor, Sununu, leads her in this poll and the trial heat with former Sen. Ayotte is nearly tied. In 2016, Hassan defeated Ayotte. Sununu has yet to announce whether he will run…. Gender gap: Sununu wins men by 25 points and Hassan wins women by 17 points.
COUNTRY: BETTER OFF OR WORSE?
Among adults nationwide
Overall, do you think the country is better off or worse off today than it was a year ago?
Better: 41%
Worse: 52%
RON’S COMMENT: 94% of Republicans, 14% of Democrats and 56% of independents say the country is worse off today than it was a year ago.
BIDEN HANDLING OF THE PANDEMIC
Among voters nationwide
[The Economist/YouGov poll] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling COVID-19?
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 48%
[Politico-Morning Consult poll] How would you rate each of the following on their handling of the coronavirus? President Joe Biden?
Excellent/good: 43%
Just fair/poor: 54%
RON’S COMMENT: Since he took office, Biden’s strongest issue has been his handling of the pandemic. But these polls show his ratings (using two different scales) are now under water. In the Economist poll, 13% of Republicans, 80% of Democrats and 37% of independents approve of his handling of the issue.
TRUMP AND DEMOCRACY
Among adults nationwide
Since the 2020 presidential election, do you think that Donald Trump has been undermining democracy or protecting democracy?
Trump undermining democracy: 51%
Trump protecting democracy: 39%
Don’t know: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: 8% of Republicans, 94% of Democrats and 48% of independents say Trump has been undermining democracy; 85% of Republicans, 4% of Democrats and 40% of independents say Trump has been protecting democracy.
FEELINGS ABOUT GOVERNMENT, COMPROMISE OR FIGHT?
Among voters nationwide
Feelings about how government works: Overall, which comes closest to your feelings about the way the federal government is working? Would you say you feel:
- Enthusiastic: 7%
- Satisfied, but not enthusiastic: 27%
- Dissatisfied, but not angry: 37%
- Angry: 27%
RON’S COMMENT: 64% of voters feel either dissatisfied or angry about the way the federal government is working. Only 34% feel satisfied or enthusiastic….. By party: 61% of Democrats, 15% of Republicans and 22% of independents say they feel satisfied or enthusiastic. Note how much closer independents are to Republicans than to Democrats on this question.
Compromise or fight: Would you rather political leaders in Washington compromise with others and find middle ground on key issues, or stand their ground and fight hard to put in place the ideas they believe in
- Compromise: 60%
- Fight hard: 31%
- Depends: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: 65% of Democrats, 55% of Republicans and 63% of independents say they favor compromise and finding middle ground.
CAPITAL PUNISHMENT
Among voters nationwide
Which would you prefer your state to do about the death penalty?
Allow the death penalty: 50%
Ban the death penalty: 31%
Don’t know: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters want to allow the death penalty in their states, although nearly one-out-of-five don’t know. 70% of Republicans, 32% of Democrats and 56% of independents favor allowing the death penalty…. Frequency: This poll also finds that 34% of voters think the death penalty isn’t imposed often enough and 23% think it’s imposed too often; 19% say it’s imposed about the right amount.
MASK, VACCINATION MANDATES
Among voters nationwide
Government mandates: Do you believe governments should be allowed to mandate masks for their citizens?
Yes: 50%
No: 41%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters believe governments should be allowed to mandate masks. 23% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 43% of independents agree.
Employer mandates: Do you believe employers should be allowed to mandate masks for their employees?
Yes: 62%
No: 30%
RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters believe employers should be allowed to mandate masks for their employees. 39% of Republicans, 86% of Democrats and 56% of independents agree.
Schools: Do you believe K-12 schools should be allowed to mandate masks for their students?
Yes: 58%
No: 34%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of voters believe K-12 schools should be allowed to mandate masks for their students. 30% of Republicans, 84% of Democrats and 53% of independents agree.
Vaccination mandates: Do you think proof of COVID-19 vaccination should be required to…?
% =Yes, require vaccination/No, don’t
- Eat at a restaurant: 40%/53%
- Attend a concert: 50%/45%
- Keep a job: 44%/47%
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA: Monmouth, Oct. 16-19
NEW HAMPSHIRE: UNH, Oct. 14-18
CAPITAL PUNISHMENT, MASK, VACCINATION MANDATES: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 16-19
CAPITAL PUNISHMENT: Politico-Morning Consult, 16-18
COUNTRY: BETTER OR WORSE?, TRUMP AND DEMOCRACY: Quinnipiac, Oct. 15-18
FEELINGS ABOUT GOVERNMENT: Fox News, Oct. 16-19
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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