LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Infrastructure Bill – Debt Default – Virginia – Tuesday Trivia

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 28, 2021

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 2 since Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: This is the worst average job rating we’ve reported on President Biden…. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Rasmussen) to 47% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (Up 1 from Thursday), putting him 8 points net negative.

VIRGINIA: GOVERNOR 2021
Among voters statewide

Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +5 (48-43)
 
RON’S COMMENT: This Monmouth poll shows McAuliffe ahead by 5 points. The average of the four most recent polls has McAuliffe ahead by 3.3 points…. Internals: 

• On issues: McAuliffe leads on handling the pandemic 41-28 and education 37-33. Youngkin leads on handling the economy 36-35 and on police/law enforcement 39-33.
• McAuliffe wins Blacks by 83-3.
• McAuliffe wins Latinos, Asians and multiracial voters by 53-28. 
• Youngkin wins Whites by57-36.
• Youngkin wins Whites without a bachelor’s degree by 66-28, but McAuliffe wins White college graduates by 50-43%.
• McAuliffe leads Northern Virginia 58-29 and the Tidewater region 56-34. 
• Youngkin leads western Virginia 58-34 and has recently gained a lead in the central part of the state along the I-95 corridor, by 51-40. 
• Four years ago, Democrat Ralph Northam was elected by winning Northern Virginia by 35 points, the Tidewater region by 13 points and the central region by 9 points. He lost western Virginia by 23 points.

INFRASTRUCTURE BILL
Among voters nationwide

As you may know, the U.S. Senate passed a $1 trillion bipartisan bill to improve America’s infrastructure. Do you support or oppose this infrastructure bill? 
 
Support: 56%
Oppose: 27%
 
RON’S COMMENT: 37% of Republicans, 77% of Democrats, 52% of independents, 63% of men and 49% of women support the infrastructure bill.

DEBT DEFAULT
Among voters nationwide

If the United States were to default on the national debt, would you tend to blame the Democratic Party more, the Republican Party more, or both parties equally? 
 
Would blame Democrats: 31%
Would blame Republicans: 20%
Would blame both parties equally: 39%
 
RON’S COMMENT: Among independents, 23% would blame Democrats, 14% would blame Republicans and 47% would blame both parties equally.

SENATE RACES: RETIREMENTS, INCUMBENTS
Senate seats up for election in 2022

Republican incumbents who so far have announced retirement:

• Richard Shelby (AL)
• Roy Blunt (MO)
• Richard Burr (NC)
• Rob Portman (OH)
• Pat Toomey (PA)

Democratic incumbents who so far have announced retirement:

• None

Potentially vulnerable incumbents:

• Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), won with 47.1% last time
• Maggie Hassan (D-NH), won with 48% last time
• Raphael Warnock (D-GA), won with 51% last time
• Mark Kelly (D-AZ), won with 51.2% last time

• Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), won with 44.4% last time (may not run)
• Marco Rubio (R-FL), won with 52% last time
• Ron Johnson (R-WI), won with 52.2% last time (may not run)

RON’S COMMENT: Of the 34 Senate seats on the block next year, 14 are now held by Democrats and 20 are now held by Republicans…. Of the five states with Republican Senate retirements already announced, Trump carried four (AL, MO, NC, OH) and Biden carried one (PA)…. Of the seven potentially vulnerable Senate incumbents, five are in states Biden carried (NV, NH, GA, AZ, WI) and two are in states Trump carried (AK, FL).

TUESDAY TRIVIA

• Who was the most recent U.S. House member expelled from the House? 
• Who was the most recent U.S. House member censured by the House?
• Who was the most recent U.S. House member reprimanded by the House?                       

(See answers below)

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA: Monmouth, Sept. 22-26
DEBT DEFAULT, INFRASTRUCTURE BILL: Politico/Morning Consult, Sept. 24-27

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

TRIVIA ANSWERS

• James A. Traficant was the most recent U.S. House member expelled (2002).
• Charles B. Rangel was the most recent U.S. House member censured (2010).
• David Schweikert was the most recent U.S. House member reprimanded (2020).

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