Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, May 29, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 53%
Down 2 from last week
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 49% (Quinnipiac) to 55% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 42% today (same as last week).
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
BLESS OUR TROOPS
MAYOR: NEW YORK CITY 2021
Among Democratic primary voters citywide
% = Fontas / PIX11 News / POS = Average
Eric Adams: 18%/20%/18% = 18.7
Andrew Yang: 13%/16%/19% = 16
Kathryn Garcia: 11%/21%/11% = 14.3
Maya Wiley: 9%/9%/10% = 9.3
Scott Stringer: 7%/10%/8% = 8.3
Diane Morales: 9%/7%/6% = 7.3
Ray McGuire: 6%/2%/6% = 4.7
Shaun Donovan: 6%/5%/4% = 5
RON’S COMMENT: These three polls, when averaged, indicate a three-way Democratic primary contest with Adams, Yang and Garcia. It also finds Stringer falling out of contention. However, there are substantial differences in these polls. For example, one has Garcia running first while the other two have her in third place…. After Memorial Day, it’s “go time” for the candidates. The Democratic primary is June 22.
Fontas poll findings:
- Adams leads among Black voters. He and Yang are nearly tied among Hispanics. Whites prefer Garcia and Asian voters pick Yang. Morales, who is running to the left of the field, is winning voters under 35 years old.
- Using ranked choice voting, 57% of voters polled say they plan to rank at least a second choice and 30 percent say they will pick only one candidate.
PIX11 News poll findings:
- PIX11 News/Emerson College polling shows Garcia with the most momentum, moving from 5% on March 6 to 8% on May 15 to 21% now. In comparison, Adams has held steady in all three polls and Yang suffered the steepest decline, falling from 32% in March to 16% now.
BIDEN’S SPENDING: TOO MUCH?
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the Biden Administration is proposing too much of an increase in government spending, not enough of an increase, or about the right amount?
Too much: 47%
Not enough: 17%
The right amount: 33%
RON’S COMMENT: While more voters in this Fox News poll say Biden is proposing “too much” spending as opposed to “the right amount” (47-33), when you add voters who say “the right amount” to those who say “not enough,” it adds up to 50% who support at least Biden’s spending levels.
BIDEN LEADERSHIP RATED
Among voters nationwide
Would you say Joe Biden is a strong or a weak leader?
Strong: 52%
Weak: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: 15% of Republicans, 89% of Democrats and 45% of independents say Biden is a strong leader.
RACIAL TENSIONS, POLICING
Among U.S. adults nationwide
The following findings are excerpted from the recent Axios-Ipsos Hard Truths poll:
A year after the country experienced the largest civil rights protest in a generation, many Americans do not feel the country has made progress on race.
- Only one in three Americans (35%) agree that the 2020 racial justice protests had a positive impact on society. A quarter (24%) have no opinion and two in five (40%) disagree with the statement.
- Almost three in five (59%) Americans say the country needs to continue making changes to give Black Americans equal rights with white Americans.
- Less than a quarter (23%) agree with the statement “America is not a racist country.”
- Fewer than one in seven (13%) think that the treatment of Black Americans by police improved over the last year. Most (51%) think it is unchanged with a third (35%) saying it got worse.
Americans have a complicated view of policing, with support for reforms but little support for “defund the police.”
- Only about a quarter (27%) of Americans support the “defund the police” movement with white Democrats (50%) being the most supportive.
- However, a majority of Americans (57%) support diverting some police budget to community policing and social services, accomplishing much of the same objectives without the polarizing name.
- Americans overwhelmingly support requiring independent investigations of police involved shootings (83%) and civilian police oversight boards (67%).
- However, a clear majority of Americans (61%) also support increasing funding of the police.
- Partisanship, particularly partisan difference among white Americans, define many of the dividing lines on racial issues.
- On the impact of the 2020 protests, fewer than one in ten (8%) white Republicans believe the 2020 protests were positive. Compare that to three in five (60%) white Democrats, over half (52%) Black Americans, and just over a third (38%) of Hispanic Americans.
- On if the country needs to continue to change to give Black Americans equal rights, one in five (19%) white Republicans agree compared to almost nine in ten (87%) white Democrats.
- On if America is a not racist country, half of white Republicans (47%) agree compared to one in twenty (4%) white Democrats.
AMERICA AT WAR: MISTAKES?
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the United States made a mistake sending troops to fight in the following wars?
% = Mistake / Not a mistake
World War I: 17%/67%
World War II: 14%/72%
Korea: 27%/48%
Vietnam: 51%/28%
Desert Storm: 32%/48%
Afghanistan: 39%/40%
Iraq: 45%/34%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters think Iraq and Vietnam were mistakes. Afghanistan is close.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
RACIAL TENSIONS, POLICING: Axios-Ipsos, April 28-May 4
MAYOR: NEW YORK CITY 2021: Fontas Advisors/Core Decision Analytics, May 15-19; PIX11 News and Emerson College, May 23-24; Public Opinion Strategies (R), May 14-17
WAR MISTAKES, BIDEN LEADERSHIP: The Economist/YouGov, May 22-25
BIDEN SPENDING: Fox News, May 22-25
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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