LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Final Georgia Polls Show Tight Races

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, January 5, 2021

U.S. SENATE: RUNOFFS 
Among voters statewide

GEORGIA (Special Election)

• (Fox 5/Insider Advantage) Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Raphael Warnock (D): even (49-49)
• (AtlasIntel) Raphael Warnock (D) over Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): +4 (51-47)
• (National Research/Preserve America-R) Raphael Warnock (D) over Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): +1 (46-45)
• (Targoz) Raphael Warnock (D) over Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): +2 (51-49)
• (Univ. of Nevada/Las Vegas) Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) over Raphael Warnock (D): +1 (49-48)
• (Trafalgar-R) Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) over Raphael Warnock (D): +2 (50-48)

Today’s polling average: Warnock +.07
 
GEORGIA (Regular Election)

• (Fox 5/Insider Advantage) Jon Ossoff (D) and Sen. David Perdue (R): even (49-49)
• (AtlasIntel) Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +4 (51-47)
• (National Research/Preserve America-R) Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +1 (46-45)
• (Targoz) Sen. David Perdue (R) and Jon Ossoff (D): even (50-50)
• (Univ. of Nevada/Las Vegas) Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +1 (49-48)
• (Trafalgar-R) Jon Ossoff (D) and Sen. David Perdue (R): even (49-49)

Today’s polling average: Ossoff +0.7
 
RON’S COMMENT: With fast-moving events and close polls bouncing around, almost anything can happen in these runoffs. The average Democratic leads we saw in recent polls have been nearly erased. The latest polling shows extremely tight battles for both seats…. In the special election, Warnock leads three polls, Loeffler leads two and one is even. In the regular election, Ossoff leads two polls, Perdue leads one and three are even…. Note that the vast majority of interviews for these six polls were conducted before Trump’s visit last night. Also: Some interviews were conducted before and some after the Trump-Raffensperger phone call release––so we don’t have clear readings on either event…. Fox 5/Insider Advantage, Trafalgar and AtlasIntel polls are the most recent by about a day or so.
 
The Fox 5/Insider Advantage poll shows: 

• Democrat Ossoff wins Blacks 91-8, women 53-44 and Democrats 94-2.
• Republican Perdue wins Whites 68-29, men 54-44, Republicans 85-13 and independents 53-46.
• Democrat Warnock wins Blacks 93-7, women 55-42 and Democrats 95-3.
• Republican Loeffler wins Whites 69-28, men 58-42, Republicans 87-13 and independents 48-44.

The AtlasIntel survey conducted Saturday thru Monday finds:  

• Biden rates 48% positive/46% negative in Georgia, compared to Donald Trump who is 46% positive/52% negative.
• Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is 27% positive/57% negative.
• Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is 35% positive/39% negative. 
• Among the state’s voters, 43% approve and 39% disapprove of Raffensperger’s conduct during the 2020 presidential election.
• Among the state’s voters, 40% think Biden won Georgia because of fraud and 54% do not believe that’s true.

The National Research/Preserve America (R) poll finds: 

• Democrat Ossoff winning 54-36 among early voters.
• Democrat Warnock winning 54-37 among early voters.
• Republican Perdue winning 56-38 among Election Day voters.
• Republican Loeffler winning 54-37 among Election Day voters.

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