At the close of trading next Thursday, the bull market will be ready to run into 2021 but probably at a slower pace, CNBC informed.
January is the month that Wall Street tradition says sets the tone for the year — “so goes January, so goes the year,” as the saynig goes. This January could be challenging, with the spreading pandemic slowing the economy and the important Georgia Senate run off elections on Jan. 5.
On Jan. 20, Joseph Biden will be sworn in as president.
“It’s a market that’s on end-of-year auto pilot,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. In three of every four years, the market sees an end-of-year Santa rally, but Stovall is also waiting to see trading in the first five days of January for signs of how the market could trade in 2021.
If the market is higher in the first five days, history shows the S&P 500 has been up 82% of the time for the full year with an average 12.5% gain, he notes.
“There are things we could worry about in January. If they were real worries, the market would be reacting already or treading water already,” Stovall said. “What spooks me is the market is setting itself up. It’s a correction in search of a catalyst, and we don’t know what the catalyst is just yet.”
Some strategists expect a pullback early in the year, but the consensus is that the market ends 2021 higher. The average expectation for the S&P 500 at year end 2021 is 4,056, according to a CNBC survey of strategists.
Stovall said the market has gotten pricey, and there are signs of froth. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for S&P 500 companies is at a 41% premium to the average multiple of 16.7, going back to the year 2000.
“I don’t feel strongly that the first few days of January has to set the direction for the market for the balance of the year,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “If in fact [stocks] do rally, it’s more of a sign of strength. But if they suffer a hiccup, I wouldn’t throw in the towel.”
The outcome of the Georgia races is a wild card for stocks, and it could trigger a market reaction no matter what the outcome. Should there be a surprise and Democrats win both seats, the Senate would be split evenly between Republicans and Democrats. That would leave Vice President-elect Kamala Harris to cast the tie-breaking vote.
Some strategists say the market could sell-off if Democrats win, since investors fear the party would have the votes to pass tax hikes that Biden favors. On the other hand, a GOP win could spark a relief rally.
But Stovall said the market could rally on a Democratic victory if investors were to consider the prospect for a bigger infrastructure and stimulus package favored by Democrats.
Arone said uncertainty about the current $900 billion fiscal stimulus package approved by Congress this past week could become a concern, if President Donald Trump decides to veto it or not sign the bill.
The President criticized the package and said individuals should receive more than the $600 that would go to many adults and children as part of the relief.
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