Several news outlets have hailed what has been described as a breakthrough in the 3½-year-old Gulf crisis as Saudi Arabia and Qatar appear committed to reach a final agreement to solve their impasse, CNBC reported.
Kuwaiti officials issued a statement last week saying that Saudi Arabia and Qatar have “confirmed their commitment” to reaching a solution and protecting “Gulf solidarity.” Kuwait has played a mediating role between the states involved in the dispute ever since Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt imposed a diplomatic and political blockade on Qatar in mid-2017, accusing it of supporting Islamic extremism and being too close with their regional foe, Iran. The Qataris rejected the allegations.
But for some Gulf watchers, the development is not a massive breakthrough but a moderate sign of progress some time in the making, with a long way still to go. And its timing is important — just weeks before a Joe Biden administration takes the helm in the U.S.
“This is not a breakthrough. It’s a step in the right direction,” Andreas Krieg, a longtime Gulf analyst who has advised the Qatari government, told CNBC over the phone. “We’ve been here before.”
“Now that Biden is coming in, there is more pressure on Saudis to show goodwill and show that they are a constructive partner in the Middle East,” he said.
Washington has consistently urged the estranged parties to end the crisis as it’s hampered U.S. interests in the region, empowered Iran and isolated Qatar which hosts Al Udeid Air Base, the largest U.S. military base in the Gulf.
Ian Bremmer, founder of political consultancy Eurasia Group and a frequent consultant to Gulf governments, also described the Saudi rapprochement as a response to the Biden win, as well as to the mounting standoff with Iran.
The Donald Trump administration has a particularly warm relationship with Saudi Arabia, far more so than the previous administration under Barack Obama. Biden is expected to make the Gulf countries less of a priority and has voiced criticism of the oil-rich Saudi kingdom, promising during a political debate to treat Saudi Arabia as “the pariah that they are.”
Faced with this potential reality, Krieg said, “I think there is a concession there that for the Saudis is something they can’t reject because they are under such immense pressure.”
“The Saudis are being pragmatic here in the same way that the Qataris are pragmatic … There is an understanding that a united Gulf front still serves everyone more than spending millions of dollars in trying to undermine each other’s positions,” he added.
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