LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Michigan Senate – Unions, GM Dispute – New Iowa Poll – Trump vs. Generic Dem

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 18, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Politico) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters statewide

Among general election voters in Iowa
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +2 (51-49)
RON’S COMMENT: Iowa has often been a swing state in presidential elections, although Trump carried it in 2016 by more than 9 points. This poll shows it now close either way. Democrats won Iowa in six of the last 10 presidential elections.
Among Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa
Joe Biden: 23% 
Elizabeth Warren: 23%
Pete Buttigieg: 16% 
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Steve Bullock: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Kamala Harris: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This new Iowa poll has Biden and Warren tied at the top––and puts Buttigieg near striking distance. Interestingly, it also has Bullock showing some life and Harris fading away. This survey was conducted before and after the debate, so it doesn’t give us a pure reading on the debate’s impact…. One tidbit: Warren now leads Sanders among Iowa Democrats who voted for Sanders in 2016.

Among voters statewide

Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +3 (43-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Peters, a low-key Senate incumbent, posts a narrow lead over James, an African American Republican. James opposed Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow in 2018. Stabenow won by 6 points…. Only 35% of voters know enough about Peters to even rate him, and he’s 20% favorable/15% unfavorable.

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 
Democratic candidate: 49% (+2 since last week)
Trump: 40% (-2 since last week)
It depends: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 9 points. Last week the Democrat was ahead by 5 points.

Among voters nationwide

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of labor unions? 
Favorable: 50%
Unfavorable: 37%
RON’S COMMENT: 68% of Democrats, 37% of independents and 33% of Republicans have favorable feelings toward labor unions. This poll also finds that 48% of voters side with the UAW in the General Motors contract dispute and 22% side with GM.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: PRESIDENT: Emerson College, Oct. 13-16
MICHIGAN: MRG, Oct. 7-10
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, UNIONS, GM: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 13-15

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