LUNCHTIME POLITICS: New Polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 14, 2019

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters, Politico) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state

Iowa Caucus
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Joe Biden: 22% 
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Pete Buttigieg: 14% 
Kamala Harris: 5%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: Despite who they vote for, this poll finds that 54% of Iowa Democrats are considering Warren, 46% are considering Biden, 43% are considering Sanders and 38% are considering Buttigieg…. On electability: 51% of Democrats in Iowa say Warren would probably beat Trump and another 45% say maybe she can. That contrasts with Biden––68% say Biden would probably beat Trump and another 29% say maybe he can…. Also, the last three Iowa polls, including this one, average: 22.7% for Warren, 19.3% for Biden, 16% for Sanders and 12% for Buttigieg. 
 
New Hampshire Primary
Elizabeth Warren: 32%
Joe Biden: 24% 
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 7% 
Andrew Yang: 5%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: Despite who they vote for, this poll finds that 63% of New Hampshire Democrats are considering Warren, 50% are considering Biden, 42% are considering Sanders and 33% are considering Buttigieg…. On electability: 53% of Democrats in New Hampshire say Warren would probably beat Trump and another 43% say maybe she can. 63% say Biden would probably beat Trump and another 35% say maybe he can…. Also, the last three New Hampshire polls, including this one, average: 28% for Warren, 24.3% for Biden, 13.3% for Sanders and 9% for Buttigieg. 
 
South Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 43% 
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 4% 
Cory Booker: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s firewall is still protecting him in the early round of primaries. Despite who they vote for, this poll finds that 66% of South Carolina Democrats are considering Biden, 47% are considering Warren and 41% are considering Sanders…. On electability: 70% of Democrats in South Carolina say Biden would probably beat Trump and another 28% say maybe he can. 51% say Warren would probably beat Trump and another 35% say maybe she can…. Also, the last four South Carolina polls, including this one, average: 39.5% for Biden, 15.8% for Warren and 11.3% for Sanders.

NORTH CAROLINA: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide

Among general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (51-46)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (50-47)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (49-46)
 
RON’S COMMENT: Top Democrats are leading Trump in North Carolina by modest margins. Trump won the state in 2016 by almost 4 points. Republicans have carried North Carolina in nine of the last 10 presidential elections. Note: This poll was conducted by a Democratic-affiliated firm.
 
Among Democratic primary voters:
Joe Biden: 39% 
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Pete Buttigieg: 9% 
Bernie Sanders: 6%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like Biden has a firewall in North Carolina as well. This poll shows him well ahead of Warren. It also puts Buttigieg in third place above Sanders.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE, SOUTH CAROLINA: CBS/YouGov, Oct. 3-11
NORTH CAROLINA: PPP (D), Oct. 4-6

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