Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 17, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Politico) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 45%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 32%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Since the debate, Biden is down 1, Sanders is down 1, Harris is down 1, Warren is up 2 and O’Rourke is up 1…. Among Democrats extremely interested in politics, Biden runs first with 31% and Warren runs second with 24% (6 points better than she does with all voters)…. Looks like Castro’s shot at Biden backfired: Before the debate, Julian Castro’s personal rating was 37% favorable/15% unfavorable among Democrats. After the debate, Castro is 34% favorable (down 3 points) and his unfavorable is 24%, up 9 points.
NEW YORK: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic voters statewide
Joe Biden: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Only five candidates get at least 3% of the vote and only three candidates make it into double digits in New York state. Biden leads the primary by a modest 5 points with Warren second and Sanders third. As in most places, Warren wins more liberal voters (31%) while Biden wins more moderate ones (29%)…. Biden does better with nonunion households (23%) than union households (18%). Warren wins the union vote with 26% and Sanders is second at 20%…. Biden leads Warren among white voters 23-21. Biden wins black voters with 25%. Booker, who is pretty well known in the New York media market, gets 0% from both blacks and whites…. Biden wins Catholics (20%), Jewish voters (29%) and Protestants (31%). Warren is second among all three groups, although Sanders ties her with Catholics. Sanders gets only 4% of the statewide Jewish vote…. Warren wins the suburbs, while Biden wins the city and upstate.
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES
Among voters nationwide
How well do you think you understand environmental issues?
Very well: 31%
Somewhat well: 51%
Not too well: 13%
Not at all well: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: The same percentage of Republicans and Democrats say they understand environmental issues “very well.”
Do you support or oppose the following policies:
Requiring oil and gas companies to report methane emissions
Support: 71%
Oppose: 13%
Banning the use of hydrofluorocarbons in air conditioners and refrigerators
Support: 48%
Oppose: 21%
Banning the use of gasoline that uses 15% ethanol during summertime
Support: 33%
Oppose: 24%
Withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement
Support: 33%
Oppose: 46%
Water pollution regulations for fracking on federal and Indian lands
Support: 65%
Oppose: 16%
Oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
Support: 30%
Oppose: 54%
Opening most of U.S. coastal waters to oil and gas drilling
Support: 31%
Oppose: 50%
Prohibiting coal companies from dumping mining debris in local streams
Support: 78%
Oppose: 11%
Oil and gas exploration on federal or Indian lands
Support: 34%
Oppose: 48%
Requiring all new lightbulbs to be energy efficient LED or flourescent
Support: 60%
Oppose: 24%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters side with what would be considered the “pro-environmental” position on every issue. However, there are major differences between Republicans and Democrats––for example: 59% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans support banning hydrofluorocarbons in air conditioners and refrigerators; 10% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans support withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement; 73% of Democrats and 48% of Republicans support water pollution regulations for fracking on federal and Indian lands; 13% of Democrats and 51% of Republicans support opening most of U.S. coastal waters to oil and gas drilling. Majorities of both Democrats and Republicans support prohibiting coal companies from dumping mining debris in local streams and requiring oil and gas companies to report methane emissions.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Among voters nationwide
Who was the only U.S. Supreme Court justice to be impeached?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult, Sept. 13-15
NEW YORK: Siena, Sept. 8-12
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 8-10
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Samuel Chase. He was the only U.S. Supreme Court justice to be impeached. A signer of the Declaration of Independence, Chase was appointed to the Court by President Washington. He was impeached in 1804 by a 73-32 vote of the U.S. House for allowing his partisan leanings to impact his judicial decisions. The Senate acquitted him in 1805 by a vote of 18-16, falling short of the required two-thirds majority for conviction. Chase continued his Supreme Court service until he died in 1811.
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