Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 4, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = Politico/Harvard-Harris/IBD-TIPP/The Economist = Average
Joe Biden: 32%/32%/28%/26% = 29.5
Elizabeth Warren: 16%/13%/24%/22% = 18.8
Bernie Sanders: 20%/16%/12%/14% = 15.5
Kamala Harris: 8%/7%/6%/5% = 6.5
Pete Buttigieg: 5%/4%/5%/5% = 4.8
Cory Booker: 3%/3%/4%/1% = 2.8
Andrew Yang: 3%/2%/1%/3% = 2.3
Beto O’Rourke: 3%/4%/-/1% = 2
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues on top but polls have differing numbers on second and third place. Two polls have Sanders ahead by 3 or 4 points, and the other two have Warren ahead by 8-12 points. What to believe? …. The Politico/Morning Consult poll finds that Biden’s supporters mostly select Sanders as their second choice and Sanders’ supporters mostly select Biden as theirs. Although, in both cases, Warren is a close second to either Sanders or Biden. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 32%, then Sanders 21% and Warren 17%.
TRUMP RE-ELECT
Among voters nationwide
If Donald Trump runs for reelection in 2020 as the Republican candidate, will you…?
Definitely vote for Trump: 28%
Probably vote for Trump: 11%
Probably vote for the Democratic candidate: 8%
Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate: 34%
Will vote for independent/other candidate: 9%
Not Sure: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows that a total of 42% of the electorate would definitely or probably vote for the Democrat and a total of 39% would definitely or probably vote for Trump. A sizable 9% opt for a third candidate. In the poll, Trump is getting a total of 46% of men, 33% of women, 48% of whites, 23% of Hispanics, 14% of blacks and 35% of independents.
REPUBLICAN LABELS
Among Republican voters nationwide
[Among Republican voters] Which of the following labels do you most identify with as a Republican?
Trump Republican: 19%
Conservative Republican: 15%
Christian Conservative: 14%
Reagan Republican: 12%
Moderate Republican: 11%
Fiscal Conservative: 6%
Compassionate Conservative: 4%
Social Conservative: 3%
Bush Republican: 3%
Liberal Republican: 2%
Heartland Republican: 2%
Labels receiving 1% or less not included
RON’S COMMENT: 63% select right-leaning labels and 20% select more centrist labels. A majority of Republicans label themselves as either a Trump, Conservative, Christian Conservative or Reagan Republican. Which one are you?
DEMOCRATIC LABELS
Among Democratic voters nationwide
[Among Democratic voters] Which of the following labels do you most identify with as a Democrat?
Obama Democrat: 24%
Liberal Democrat: 19%
Moderate Democrat: 14%
Progressive: 6%
Conservative Democrat: 6%
Democratic Socialist: 5%
Clinton Democrat: 5%
Environmentalist: 4%
Fiscally Conservative Democrat: 3%
Socially Conservative Democrat: 2%
Labels receiving 1% or less not included
RON’S COMMENT: 58% of Democrats select left-leaning labels, while 30% select more centrist labels. Which one are you?
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Harvard-Harris, Aug. 26-28
TRUMP RE-ELECT, REPUBLICAN LABELS, DEMOCRATIC LABELS: Harvard-Harris, Aug. 26-28; The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 1-3; Politico/Morning Consult, Aug. 26-Sept. 1; IBD-TIPP, Aug. 22-28
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