Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, July 23, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like the running battle with “The Squad” hasn’t hurt President Trump as far as his job rating is concerned. In fact, it’s gone up. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 44% (Reuters, NPR/PBS/Marist) to 50% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll gives him 46%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 33% (+1 from last week)
Bernie Sanders: 18% (-1)
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Kamala Harris: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Not much change in this poll from last week, although it shows that Biden has stabilized and the other candidates remain well behind him…. New candidate Tom Steyer polls 1%…. 71% of Biden’s vote is white. That compares to 69% for Sanders, 84% for Warren and 69% for Harris…. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 33%, then Sanders 21%, Warren 11% and Harris 11%.
50 GOVERNORS: JOB RATINGS
Among voters in each state
% = Approve/Disapprove
TOP 10
Massachusetts, Charlie Baker (R): 73%/14%
Maryland, Larry Hogan (R): 70%/16%
New Hampshire, Chris Sununu (R): 65%/23%
Vermont, Phil Scott (R): 60%/26%
North Dakota, Doug Burgum (R): 59%/19%
Wyoming, Mark Gordon (R): 59%/9%
Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson (R): 59%/24%
Texas, Greg Abbott (R): 58%/24%
Tennessee, Bill Lee (R): 57%/18%
Florida, Ron DeSantis (R): 57%/20%
MIDDLE
Idaho, Brad Little (R): 57%/21%
Alabama, Kay Ivey (R): 57%/29%
South Carolina, Henry McMaster (R): 55%/25%
Oklahoma, Kevin Stitt (R): 55%/19%
Montana, Steve Bullock (D): 54%/29%
Delaware, John Carney (D): 54%/27%
Utah, Gary Herbert (R): 54%/29%
Nebraska, Pete Ricketts (R): 54%/34%
Mississippi, Phil Bryant (R): 53%/27%
Arizona, Doug Ducey (R): 53%/29%
Pennsylvania, Tom Wolf (D): 53%/33%
Georgia, Brian Kemp (R): 52%/29%
Indiana, Eric Holcomb (R): 50%/22%
Maine, Janet Mills (D): 50%/40%
Kansas, Laura Kelly (D): 49%/22%
North Carolina, Roy Cooper III (D): 49%/29%
Alaska, Mike Dunleavy (R): 49%/32%
Wisconsin, Tony Evers (D): 49%/34%
Hawaii, David Ige (D): 49%/34%
South Dakota, Kristi Noem (R):49%/40%
Nevada, Steve Sisolak (D): 49%/27%
Minnesota, Tim Walz (D): 49%/31%
Louisiana, John Bel Edwards (D): 47%/33%
New York, Andrew Cuomo (D): 47%/41%
Washington, Jay Inslee (D): 47%/35%
Missouri, Mike Parson (R): 47%/23%
Ohio, Mike DeWine (R): 45%/33%
Colorado, Jared Polis (D): 45%/35%
Iowa, Kim Reynolds (R): 45%/38%
New Jersey, Phil Murphy (D): 44%/38%
BOTTOM 10
Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer (D): 44%/34%
Illinois, JB Pritzker (D): 44%/35%
New Mexico, Michelle Lujan Grisham (D): 44%/43%
California, Gavin Newsom (D): 43%/ 33%
West Virginia, Jim Justice (R): 43%/43%
Virginia, Ralph Northam (D): 42%/37%
Oregon, Kate Brown (D): 41%/45%
Rhode Island, Gina Raimondo (D): 38%/55%
Kentucky, Matt Bevin (R): 32%/56%
Connecticut, Ned Lamont (D): 32%/48%
RON’S COMMENT: The 14 most popular governors in their home states are all Republicans. Three of the four most popular governors are Republicans in Democratic states (Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Larry Hogan of Maryland and Phil Scott of Vermont.)…. Eight of the 10 least popular governors are Democrats and two are Republicans…. Note that GOP Gov. Mark Gordon of Wyoming has a rarely seen single-digit disapproval rating (9%)…. Of the two governors seeking re-election this year, Democrat John Bel Edwards in Louisiana is 47%/33% and Republican Matt Bevin in Kentucky is 32%/56%. Mississippi’s Republican Gov. Phil Bryant is term limited and not running again this year…. Baker and Hogan are the only two who break 70% approval. Bevin and Rhode Island Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo have the highest disapproval ratings, 56% and 55% respectively…. For a new governor who won a tough, close race, Florida’s Ron DeSantis, a Republican, is doing exceedingly well (57%/20%)…. In fairness to the bottom 10, three new governors clearly have net positive ratings (Whitmer, Pritzker, Newsom), but their overall numbers are low, which pulls them down in the approval rankings…. Caveat: This data is based on surveys conducted between April 1 and June 30, 2019. As such, some of these results are stale and may not provide a useful current reading.
ECONOMY: WORKING FOR YOU PERSONALLY?
Among voters nationwide
Right now, do you think the economy is working well for you personally, or is the economy not working well for you personally?
Working well: 66%
Not working well: 43%
Unsure: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: 46% of Democrats, 93% of Republicans and 62% of independents say the economy is working well for them personally. By income: 74% of voters with household incomes above $50,000 say it is, while 55% of those with incomes below $50,000 say it is….This issue is Trump’s ace in the hole. This same poll finds that 52% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 44% disapprove.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which current Democratic presidential candidate received BA and MA degrees from Standard (where he played football as a tight end, along with teammates Brad Muster and Ed McCaffrey), was awarded a Rhodes Scholarship and received a law degree from Yale?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION:
ECONOMY: WORKING FOR YOU PERSONALLY? NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist, July 15-17
50 GOVERNORS JOB RATINGS: Morning Consult, April 1-June 30
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Cory Booker.
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