Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, July 12, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (PPP-D) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 49% (same as last week)
Trump: 38% (-1 since last week)
It depends: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 11 points, up from 10 points last week.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Kamala Harris: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This new poll shows Warren in second place, with Sanders and Harris following. Biden continues to do best among blacks, older Democrats and moderates. Warren does best among more liberal Democrats and those 18-49 years old…. Warren also leads the field among voters who want bigger, bolder change: She gets 29% of the vote among the 54% of Democrats who want large-scale change, including policies that cost more and are harder to pass. Among the 41% of Democrats who want smaller-scale policies that cost less and are easier to pass, Biden leads with 35%…. This also finds that 7 out of 10 Democrats want a government-based single-payer healthcare system. That compares to only 36% of independents and 14% of Republicans.
SOUTH CAROLINA: PRIMARY
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 35%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Kamala Harris: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%
Cory Booker: 3%
Pete Buttigieg: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The good news for Biden: He continues to lead the South Carolina primary by a big margin…. Among white Democrats, Biden leads with 25%, Harris is second with 13%, Sanders is third with 12% and Warren is fourth with 11%. Among black Democrats, Biden leads with 41%, Sanders is second at 15%, Harris is third at 12%––which many observers may find surprising––and Booker is fourth at 4%…. Most white Democrats (26%) think Harris would best handle racial issues and most black Democrats (28%) think Biden would, which will also surprise some pundits…. Now, the less than good news for Biden: He averaged 41% in the two previous South Carolina polls conducted in early June, so 35% is down 6 points. Harris went up from 8% to 12% now.
FAVORABILITY OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Among voters nationwide
Among all voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Elizabeth Warren: 45%/41%
Joe Biden: 44%/47%
Bernie Sanders: 42%/50%
Kamala Harris: 40%/42%
Cory Booker: 37%/39%
Pete Buttigieg: 36%/34%
Beto O’Rourke: 32%/44%
Julian Castro: 31%/33%
Tulsi Gabbard: 22%/32%
Andrew Yang: 21%/32%
RON’S COMMENT: Remember, these ratings are among the entire electorate and not just Democrats. This poll shows Warren doing best, then Biden, Sanders and Harris…. Note that Warren and Buttigieg are the only top Democratic candidates who have net positive personal ratings among all voters.
Among only Democrats nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Elizabeth Warren: 68%/13%
Joe Biden: 68%/21%
Bernie Sanders: 65%/24%
Kamala Harris: 64%/15%
Pete Buttigieg: 54%/14%
Cory Booker: 53%/18%
Beto O’Rourke: 50%/22%
Julian Castro: 48%/13%
Andrew Yang: 28%/24%
Tulsi Gabbard: 26%/20%
RON’S COMMENT: These ratings are among only Democrats. This shows Warren and Biden tied with 68% favorable, although Warren now has a lower unfavorable rating than does Biden (13% vs. 21%). Sanders and Yang have the highest negative ratings of this group of candidates, at 24%, although Sanders has a much stronger positive rating (65%)…. What do these numbers mean? They show that both Warren and Harris now have the most growth potential in terms of Democratic voter support.
DC FOURTH OF JULY EVENT
Among voters statewide
From what you know now about now, was the “Salute to America” worth the financial cost of staging it?
Worth it: 34%
Not worth it: 45%
Not sure: 21%
RON’S COMMENT: 10% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans say the event was worth the cost. Also, 37% of voters nationwide approved of Trump’s speech and 34% disapproved.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: WSJ/NBC, July 7-9
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, FAVORABILITY OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES, DC FOURTH OF JULY EVENT: The Economist/YouGov, July 7-9
SOUTH CAROLINA: Fox News, July
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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