Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, June 24, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Morning Consult) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 since Thursday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the severity of recent weather events are the result of climate change or do these kind of events just happen from time to time?
Result of climate change: 48%
Just happen from time to time: 41%
Not sure: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters believe the severity of recent weather events are the result of climate change. By demo: 73% of Democrats, 40% of independents, 26% of Republicans, 45% of men, 48% of women, 52% of those under 30, 43% of those 65 and older, 47% of whites, 50% of blacks and 46% of Hispanics agree with that sentiment.
LEGAL IMMIGRATION
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the federal government should increase or decrease the level of LEGAL immigration into the United States, or leave the level the same?
Increase LEGAL immigration: 32%
Decrease LEGAL immigration: 26%
Not change the level of LEGAL immigration: 31%
Not sure: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters are split on whether the government should increase or decrease the level of legal immigration into the U.S. Less than a third favor increasing it. By demo: 43% of Democrats, 23% of independents, 18% of Republicans, 29% of men, 27% of women, 37% of those under 30, 25% of those 65 and older, 29% of whites, 24% of blacks and 26% of Hispanics agree with that the government should increase legal immigration.
BORDER WALL
Among voters nationwide
Do you favor or oppose building a wall along the US-Mexico border to try to stop illegal immigration?
Favor wall: 45%
Oppose wall: 47%
Not sure: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters have moved a bit to the right on the wall issue. Five months ago, only 41% favored the wall. Now, it’s 45%…. By demo: 11% of Democrats, 42% of independents, 86% of Republicans, 48% of men, 39% of women, 30% of those under 30, 55% of those 65 and older, 49% of whites, 21% of blacks and 38% of Hispanics now favor the wall.
ABOUT TRUMP
Among voters nationwide
These findings are from the recent Monmouth national poll report:
- 41% of voters say Trump “has been giving enough attention to issues that are important to their families.” However, 55% “wish he would devote more attention to these issues.” When this question was asked in November 2018, 38% said he was giving enough attention to these issues and 56% said he was not.
- 23% of voters feel that Trump has made progress on his promise to “drain the swamp” in Washington, while 32% say he has made the swamp worse, and 35% say nothing has changed. When this question was asked in November 2018, 30% said he had made progress, 30% said he had made it worse, and 33% said nothing had changed.
- 47% of voters are concerned, either a lot (36%) or a little (11%), that Trump is too friendly toward Russia, while 48% are not concerned.
- 45% feel that Trump’s attitude toward Russia poses a national security threat, while 51% say it does not. In January those results were an identical 45% to 51%.
- 21% of voters say they are surprised––13% very surprised and 8% somewhat surprised––by how Trump has behaved since taking office. Fully 77% are not surprised. This result is about the same as it was just over a year ago, when 19% were surprised (9% very and 10% somewhat) and 79% were not surprised.
- 80% say the way “Trump runs his administration is less conventional than past presidents,” while just 13% say it has been about as conventional as his predecessors. These results are virtually identical to polls conducted in April 2019 (80% to 12%) and April 2018 (81% to 12%).
- 47% say Trump’s unconventional behavior has been bad for the country, about the same as it was in both April 2019 and April 2018 (46%). Also, 27% disagree and say his behavior has been good for the country, which is basically the same as prior polls (26% in April 2019 and 27% in April 2018).
LOUISIANA: GOVERNOR 2019
Among voters statewide
Open primary
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D): 46%
Ralph Abraham (R): 17%
Eddie Rispone (R): 5%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Louisiana’s Democratic Gov. Edwards leading his two GOP challengers by substantial margins in the October open primary. The big question is whether Republicans can force a runoff…. But, some local observers have questioned this poll because it also shows that only 37% of the state’s voters favor re-electing President Trump, while 54% do not favor his re-election––which contrasts with the state’s voting pattern in recent presidential elections. In the 2016 election, Trump received 58% of the vote in Louisiana (which was 12 points higher than his national popular vote), walloping Hillary Clinton by 20 points. In 2012 and 2008, Republicans won the state by margins of 17-19 points.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CLIMATE CHANGE, LEGAL IMMIGRATION, BORDER WALL: The Economist/YouGov, June 16-18
ABOUT TRUMP: Monmouth Univ., June 12-17
LOUISIANA: Market Research Insight
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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