LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Biden Holds Lead – Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania – Economic Indicator

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Morning Consult) to 49% (USA Today/Suffolk). Without these two extremes, it would be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-2 from yesterday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.

Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = Morning Consult/Suffolk = Average
Joe Biden: 38%/30% = 34
Bernie Sanders: 19%/15% = 17
Elizabeth Warren: 11%/10% = 10.5
Pete Buttigieg: 7%/9% = 8
Kamala Harris: 7%/8% = 7.5
Beto O’Rourke: 4%/2% = 3
Cory Booker: 3%/2% = 2.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: There is a substantial difference between the two polls on Biden’s vote and to a lesser extent on Sanders’ vote, although the other candidates are close.

  • Among Democratic voters who are “extremely interested” in the election, Morning Consult finds that: Biden gets 35%, Sanders 16%, Warren 15%, Buttigieg 10% and Harris 9%. Note that Warren, Buttigieg and Harris do better among extremely interested Democrats than among those who aren’t––if this holds up, it could ultimately give them a turnout boost.
  • There are only three candidates with nationwide name ID at 90% or above: Sanders (99%), Biden (98%) and Warren (90%).
  • While Buttigieg gets more votes than either O’Rourke or Booker, those two have better name ID and slightly higher favorable ratings among Democrats nationally than does Buttigieg: O’Rourke’s name ID is 80%, Booker is 79% and Buttigieg is 72%. O’Rourke’s favorable rating is 47%, Booker is 47% and Buttigieg is 44%. 
  • In Morning Consult’s subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 40% (same as last week), Sanders 18% (same as last week) and Warren 11% (+1 from last week).

Among voters statewide

Among general election voters in Florida:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (50-41)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (48-42)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (47-43)
Kamala Harris (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +1 (45-44)
Beto O’Rourke (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (45-44)
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (44-43)
RON’S COMMENT: These general election numbers from Quinnipiac in Florida will not please the Trump campaign. This is a “must win” state for them, a state that Trump won in 2016…. Against Biden, Trump is getting 90% of Florida’s Republicans, 3% of its Democrats, 32% of independents, 49% of men, 34% of women, 57% of voters without college degrees, 52% of whites, 9% of blacks and 32% of Hispanics…. Trump has a big problem with both independents and women in Florida. In the 2016 election in this critical state, Trump won 46% of women and 47% of independents. This poll shows that he’s now missing his mark by 12 points among women and by 15 points among independents…. Trump isn’t getting as much traction from the economy in Florida that he needs––54% of the state’s electorate say they’re better off financially today than they were in 2016…. Also, only 32% of the state’s voters want Congress to begin the impeachment process…. Note: Republicans question the accuracy of Quinnipiac’s polling in Florida.They point out that Quinnipiac’s last poll before the 2018 U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections had Democrats ahead in both races by 7 points, although Republicans won those two contests on Election Day by small margins. 

Among Democratic voters in Florida:
Joe Biden: 41% 
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 8% 
Kamala Harris: 6%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden wallops the Democratic field in Florida, with Sanders and Warren battling for a distant second place. Among the most liberal Democrats, Sanders wins with 27% and Warren is second at 22%. Among moderate Democrats, Biden wins with 51% and nobody else hits double digits. Biden’s strength is across the gender and racial boards: He’s getting about the same percentage among men, women, blacks and nonwhites.

Among voters statewide

Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (47-40)
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (46-40)
Elizabeth Warren (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (41-41)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D) +2 (41-39)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Sanders and Biden doing best against Trump in this critical state that Trump carried in 2016 by a small margin. It also finds that Trump’s job approval rating in Wisconsin is 44%, which is up 3 points since March. 

Among voters statewide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (46-43)
Bernie Sanders (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (44-44)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +2 (43-41)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D) +4 (44-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Only Biden leads Trump in this Michigan poll, which also finds Trump’s job approval rating in this critical state to be 45%. 

Among voters statewide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (43-42)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +3 (44-41) 
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +11 (45-34)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D) +13 (45-32)
RON’S COMMENT: Even though Biden edges Trump in Pennsylvania, this poll finds the president leading the other three Democrats, some by surprisingly wide margins. His job approval rating in the state is 46%. Rest assured that Democrats will question these results.

Among voters nationwide

Which of the following do you consider the best measure of how Donald Trump is handling the national economy? 
Unemployment rate/Jobs: 34% 
Prices of goods and services: 24% 
Your personal finances: 13%
Stock market index: 11%
Don’t know: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: These voter perceptions are really interesting. Many more Republicans say the unemployment rate than do Democrats (52% vs. 15%). More Democrats say prices than do Republicans (33% vs. 16%). More Democrats say the stock market than Republicans (11% vs. 8%). Whites are more likely to say unemployment rate than blacks (33% vs. 20%).

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult, June 14-15
FLORIDA: Quinnipiac, June 12-17
WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA: Firehouse-Optimus, June 11-13
BEST ECONOMIC INDICATOR: The Economist/YouGov, June 9-11

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