LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina – Macron in France

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, June 17, 2019

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters, Morning Consult) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
Lunchtime Politics is taking a break tomorrow and Wednesday. We’ll see you back Thursday.

Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (49-39)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (49-40)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (43-41)
Kamala Harris (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +1 (42-41)
Pete Buttigieg(D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (41-40)
RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll shows all five Democrats tested leading Trump in the general election, by margins ranging from 1 to 10 points…. In the Trump vs. Biden trial heat: Biden receives 88% of Democrats, 9% of Republicans and 38% of independents. Trump receives 5% of Democrats, 83% of Republicans and 22% of independents. Biden wins men by 2, women by 18, nonwhites by 48 and white women by 3. Trump wins whites by 3 and non-college whites by 10. 

Among voters statewide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +11 (52-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This EPIC-MRA poll is the second in a row showing Biden beating Trump in Michigan by double digits. The previous Detroit News poll had Biden ahead by 12…. This is a real problem for Trump, who won the state’s 16 electoral votes in 2016, albeit by a thin two-tenths of a point…. The following is from the poll report:

  • Region: Biden has a 57%-35% edge in metro Detroit, but also leads the outer ring of Detroit’s suburbs, 62%-35%, and in northern Michigan, 46%-42% according to the poll. Trump holds smaller leads of 3 percentage points in central and west Michigan and in and around Bay City.
  • Age: Biden leads among all age groups but had an especially large lead—65%-to-27%—among younger voters ages 18-34. 
  • Race: While white voters split between the two candidates with 47% each, African Americans supported Biden 95%-3%.
  • Party: While Democrats supported Biden 93%-2%, 83% of Republicans support Trump and 12% back Biden. Among independents, 48% support Biden, 36% support Trump and 16% are undecided.  

For more on Michigan in the 2016 election, read Trump Cracked the Firewall by Ron Faucheux here

Among Democratic voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 32% 
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 8% 
Kamala Harris: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll of Democrats nationwide shows Biden dropping 3 points over the past month. It also shows Sanders down 4, Warren holding steady, Buttigieg up 2 and Harris up 3…. Among Democratic men, it’s Biden 31, Sanders 13, Warren 10. Among Democratic women, it’s Biden 34%, Sanders 14%, and Warren, Buttigieg and Harris at 8% each…. Among whites, it’s Biden 30%, Sanders 13%, Buttigieg 12%, Warren 10% and Harris 8%. Among nonwhites, it’s Biden 37%, Sanders 13%, Warren an Harris each at 7%…. Among whites with college degrees, it’s Biden 29%, Buttigieg 15%, Sanders 10%, Warren and Harris each at 9%…. Generation gap: Biden does twice as well among Democrats 45 and older (42%) than among those under 45 (21%). Sanders, on the other hand, is getting 18% of those under 45 and 10% of those 45 and older.

Among Democratic caucusgoers statewide

Joe Biden: 30% 
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 11% 
Kamala Harris: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
John Delaney: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The last poll we reported, from the Des Moines Register, showed a flatter race, with Biden on top (with 24%) and Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg nearly tied for second place. This new CBS poll has Biden in first place with Sanders clearly in second place. Warren and Buttigieg are battling over third place…. Iowa poll internals: This CBS poll also finds that 58% of Iowa’s Democrats are considering voting for Biden, while 45% are considering Sanders, 44% Warren, 31% Harris and 30% Buttigieg. 

Among Democratic voters statewide

Joe Biden: 33% 
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 10% 
Kamala Harris: 7%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll also finds that 61% of New Hampshire’s Democrats are considering voting for Biden, while 51% are considering Warren, 47% Sanders, 36% Harris and 34% Buttigieg.

Among Democratic voters statewide

Joe Biden: 45% 
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 6% 
Kamala Harris: 7%
Cory Booker: 4%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden dominates the field in South Carolina. Also: This poll finds that 67% of the state’s Democrats are considering voting for Biden, while 45% are considering Sanders, 33% Warren 33% Harris, 21% Booker and 20% Buttigieg.

Among Democratic voters statewide

Elizabeth Warren: 21%
Joe Biden: 20% 
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Amy Klobuchar: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 11% 
Kamala Harris: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Warren leads this Minnesota poll, with Biden and Sanders close behind. Klobuchar follows in fourth place in her home state. Warren beats Klobuchar among women voters 27-19.

Among voters in France

Preferences for the 2022 presidential election
Emmanuel Macron (REM): 30%
Marine LePen (RN): 28%
Yannick Jadot (EELV): 12%
Jean-Luc Antoine Pierre Mélenchon (FI): 9%
Laurent Timothée Marie Wauquiez (LR): 8%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF): 5%
Olivier Faure (PS): 4%
Other parties/candidates: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows President Macron leading the first round of voting in the next French presidential election, which isn’t until 2022. He’s getting 30% in this poll compared to 28% for LePen, his major challenger. Macron and LePen are doing better now than they did in the first round of the 2017 election, when Macron captured 24% of the vote and LePen won 21%…. In a runoff trial heat between the two, Macron now leads LePen 57-43…. Other parties explained: The EELV is the Europe Ecology party, also known as The Greens. …FI is the France Insoumise party, which is left-wing populist….. LR is the Republican party, which is conservative and center-right, the Gaullist party with is currently the second largest party in the National Assembly, second to Macron’s REM party….. DLF is Debout La France, which claims to be the genuine “Gaullist” party….. PS is the Socialist Party, which is center-left. Along with the Republicans, the PS was once one of France’s two major parties.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MINNESOTA: Change Research, June 8-12
MACRON IN FRANCE 2022: Ifop-Fiducial, May 27-28

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