Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, May 23, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Quinnipiac) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Beto O’Rourke: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden does best among Democratic primary voters who call themselves “moderates,” drawing 43% from that group. His numbers start to decline when he gets into more liberal constituencies…. Electability rules: Wonder why Biden remains so far ahead? Here’s why: 65% of Democrats say they would prefer a nominee who had “a stronger chance of winning the general election over one who agreed with them on their top policy issue.”
FLORIDA: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Among all general election voters in Florida:
Joe Biden (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (50-50)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +4 (52-48)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +4 (62-48)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +6 (53-47)
RON’S COMMENT: Except for the Biden-Trump trial heat, which has the general election a tie in Florida, these are good numbers for Trump in a state that he won by only 1.2 points in 2016.
Among Democratic primary voters in Florida:
Joe Biden: 39%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Beto O’Rourke: 5%
Julian Castro: 2%
Candidates with less than 1% not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Delegate-rich Florida will be an important battleground for the presidential candidates, and this poll has Biden way ahead. It also has Warren tied for second place with Sanders––more evidence that the Massachusetts senator is moving up among Democratic voters.
Felons voting in Florida: Here’s another interesting finding from this Florida poll report: “A plurality of [all] voters, 48%, supports current legislation requiring repayment of financial obligations before a felon’s voting rights are restored, 34% oppose and 19% are undecided. Republicans are in strongest support, 68% to 19%, while Democrats are slightly opposed 46% to 39% and Independents are split with 36% opposed and 34% support. In 2018, Florida voters approved a constitutional amendment automatically restoring the right to vote to nearly 1.5 million people who had committed a felony in their pasts.”
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 48% (-2 since last week)
Trump: 38% (-1 since last week)
It depends: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat was ahead by 11 points last week, now it’s 10 points. Trump is getting 85% of Republicans and the Democrat is getting 86% of Democrats. The Democrat wins independents by 6 points, men by 1 point and women by 16 points.
CHINA & TARIFFS
Among adults nationwide
In the short term, do you think the United States’ decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports will make the economy better, make the economy worse, or will it not have much of an effect?
Better: 24%
Worse: 47%
Not much of an effect: 22%
RON’S COMMENT: 45% of Republicans, 8% of Democrats and 22% of independents say the tariff hike will make the economy better in the short term. On the flip side: 23% of Republicans, 68% of Democrats and 46% of independents say it will make the economy worse in the short term.
CONGRESSIONAL AGENDA
Among adults nationwide
Which one of these issues do you think is most important for Congress to address now?
Healthcare: 31%
Immigration: 27%
Environment: 14%
National debt: 12%
Infrastructure: 9%
Trade: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: Top issue for Republicans is immigration (46%) and the top issue for Democrats is healthcare (41%).
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Hill-HarrisX, May 17-18
FLORIDA: FAU BEPI, May 16-19
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, May 18-21
CONGRESSIONAL AGENDA, CHINA & TARIFFS: CBS News, May 17-20
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans
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