Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, February 28, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 37%
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Kamala Harris: 10%
Beto O’Rourke: 6%
Elizabeth Warren: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Michael Bloomberg: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: This national poll shows Biden on top by a substantial margin––with Sanders second. It was conducted the day of, and the day after, Sanders’ announcement of candidacy…. The poll we reported yesterday showed Sanders much closer to Biden…. Most surveys have been putting Harris in third place, though somewhat distantly…. Note that 59% of Democrats are voting for either Biden or Sanders in this poll, with only 29% picking someone else…. Also note that the poll excludes a number of active candidates, such as Amy Klobuchar and John Delaney.
TEXAS: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (D): +2 (47-45)
Donald Trump (R) over Julian Castro (D): +5 (46-41)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +7 (48-41)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +7 (48-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Biden, O’Rourke (who is a Texan) and Sanders running very close to Trump in Texas. Castro, also from Texas, comes within 5 points. In the survey, Biden loses men by 11 points, but wins women by 9 points…. Trump polls 32% of Hispanics, 8% of blacks and 62% of whites…. If this poll is accurate, it means Texas and its 38 Electoral votes could (emphasize could) become a battleground in the 2020 presidential election. In 2016 Trump carried Texas by 9 points, and in 2012 Mitt Romney carried the state by 16 points. Texas has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980…. It should be noted that this poll was conducted by a nonpartisan outfit that, in many cases, shows Democrats doing better than some other polls do.
CATHOLIC CHURCH
Among adults nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the Catholic Church?
Favorable: 30%
Unfavorable: 51%
Don’t know: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: 28% of Democrats, 27% of independents and 39% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of the Catholic Church. Keep in mind that this poll was taken among all U.S. adults, which includes non-Catholics and Catholics. Unfortunately, the poll report did not break out results by religious affiliation of the respondents.
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Pope Francis?
Favorable: 45%
Unfavorable: 31%
Don’t know: 23%
RON’S COMMENT: 63% of Democrats, 40% of independents and 31% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Pope Francis. Interestingly, Republicans have the highest opinion of the Catholic Church and the lowest opinion of Pope Francis.
Has Pope Francis made you think more positively about the Catholic Church, less positively about the Catholic Church, or has he made no difference?
More positively about the Catholic Church: 19%
Has made no difference how I think about the Catholic Church: 44%
Less positively about the Catholic Church: 19%
Don’t know: 18%
Are you in favor of or opposed to letting Catholic priests get married?
Favor: 51%
Oppose: 8%
Don’t know: 12%
Don’t care: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: 50% of men and 53% of women favor letting priests marry…. Again, keep in mind that this poll was taken among all U.S. adults, which includes non-Catholics and Catholics.
Are you in favor of or opposed to letting women be ordained as Catholic priests?
Favor: 45%
Oppose: 15%
Don’t know: 14%
Don’t care: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: 41% of men and 50% of women favor letting women be ordained as Catholic priests.
How widespread do you think sexual abuse of children and teenagers by Catholic priests was?
Many priests did it: 50%
A few priests did it: 26%
Hardly any priests: 5%
Not sure: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: Half of Americans believe that “many” Catholic priests have been guilty in the past of sexual abuse of children and teenagers. 45% of men and 54% of women agree.
How widespread do you think sexual abuse of children and teenagers by Catholic priests is now?
Many priests do it: 30%
A few priests do it: 31%
Hardly any priests do it: 8%
Not sure: 31%
RON’S COMMENT: Three out of ten Americans believe that “many” Catholic priests are currently abusing children and teenagers––28% of men and 31% of women agree…. It should also be noted that 37% of U.S. adults believe sexual abuse of children and teenagers is more common in the Church than in other churches and 33% believe it’s as common in the Catholic Church as in other churches. Only 5% think it’s less common in the Catholic Church.
SOURCES
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Harvard-Harris, Feb. 19-20
TEXAS: Quinnipiac, Feb. 20-25
CATHOLIC CHURCH: The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 24-26
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