Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, February 27, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Morning Consult) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 29% (-1 from last week)
Bernie Sanders: 27% (+6)
Kamala Harris: 10% (-1)
Elizabeth Warren: 7% (-1)
Beto O’Rourke: 7% (-1)
Cory Booker: 4% (-1)
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Terry McAuliffe: 1% (-1)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
John Delaney: 1% (+1)
Julian Castro: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Pete Buttigieg: 1% (+1)
Sherrod Brown: 1%
Steve Bullock: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Eric Holder: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: This new national poll shows Sanders has moved up since his announcement, gaining an impressive 6 points. Looks like the Vermont senator’s rise came at the expense of most of his major opponents…. In the subsample of early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada), Biden leads with 30%, Sanders is second with 27% and Harris is third with 11%….. Biden is getting 40% of Democratic voters over 65 and 17% of those under 30…. If Biden does not run, the major beneficiary would be Sanders, who would get 28% of Biden’s vote. The second beneficiary would be Harris, who would get 12% of Biden supporters.
Among voters statewide
% = Approve/Disapprove
Sen. John Cornyn (R): 43%/26%
Sen. Ted Cruz (R): 51%/40%
Pres. Donald Trump (R): 47%/50%
Gov. Greg Abbott (R): 58%/28%
RON’S COMMENT: Cornyn faces re-election next year. While his job rating leans positive, his 43% approval number is lackluster for a 16-year incumbent. Some Democrats are trying to talk Beto O’Rourke out of a presidential candidacy and into the Senate race against Cornyn…. Even though Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Texas by 9 points in 2016, his job rating is now slightly net negative in the state, with half the voters thumbs down on his job performance. Women give Trump a net negative 42% approve/54% disapproval rating. Men are 51% approve/45% disapprove…. Texans are split down the middle on the border wall: 48% favor it, 48% oppose it. Also, 60% of Texans disapprove of Trump using emergency powers to fund the wall.
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, Feb. 18-24
TEXAS: Quinnipiac, Feb. 20-25
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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