Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, January 3, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 2 from Dec. 20
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Gallup) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
AS WE MOVE INTO THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, SEND A FREE SUBSCRIPTION TO FRIENDS AND CLIENTS. GO TO LUNCHTIMEPOLITICS.COM AND ENTER THEIR NAMES AND EMAILS.
EXPECTATIONS FOR 2019
Among adults nationwide
What’s your feeling about the year ahead? Generally speaking, are you optimistic or pessimistic about what kind of year 2019 will be for the world?
Optimistic: 37%
Pessimistic: 36%
Neither: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: 40% of men, 34% of women, 35% of 18-29 year olds, 33% of those 65 or older, 38% of whites, 34% of blacks, 32% of Hispanics, 29% of Democrats, 30% of independents and 57% of Republicans say they’re optimistic about the kind of year 2019 will be for the world.
How do you feel about your family’s future in the upcoming year?
Optimistic: 44%
Pessimistic: 23%
Neither: 32%
RON’S COMMENT: Americans are more optimistic about their family’s future than about the world’s future in 2019: 45% of men, 42% of women, 43% of 18-29 year olds, 37% of those 65 or older, 44% of whites, 48% of blacks, 38% of Hispanics, 35% of Democrats, 42% of independents and 60% of Republicans say they’re optimistic about their family’s future in 2019.
SHUTDOWN BLAME
Among voters nationwide
Who do you think is MOST to blame for the shutdown of the federal government?
President Trump: 49%
Democrats in Congress: 40%
Republicans in Congress: 4%
Not sure: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters blame President Trump for the shutdown, although not lopsidedly so. Among independents––who will likely be swing voters in the 2020 election––44% blame Trump and 29% blame Democrats in Congress.
How do you think the political leadership in Washington DC should resolve the government shutdown?
- Democrats should agree to President Trump’s request for $5 billion for border wall: 29%
- Democrats and Trump should agree to between $1.6 billion and the full $5 billion: 19%
- Trump should accept the $1.6 billion Democrats had already agreed to: 43%
- Not sure: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: 30% of Republicans would favor a $1.6 billion to $5 billion compromise, while 53% of Republicans believe Democrats should agree to Trump’s request for $5 billion.
IMPACT OF NEW TAX LAW
Among voters nationwide
From what you know about it now, do you think you will pay more or less under the new tax plan?
Pay more: 20%
Pay about the same: 30%
Pay less: 21%
Not sure: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: Barely one in five voters believe they will pay less under the tax plan that Congress passed. That’s not good news for Republicans, who had hoped the new tax law would have had a more positive political impact. It also explains why voting for the tax plan did not help GOP House incumbents who lost re-election last year.
HILL LEADERS: JOB APPROVAL
Among voters nationwide
% = Approve/Disapprove
Paul Ryan: 21%/61%
Kevin McCarthy: 23%/39%
Mitch McConnell: 26%/52%
Nancy Pelosi: 35%/51%
Chuck Schumer: 33%/44%
RON’S COMMENT: As he retires from the House, Ryan has the highest negative rating among Congressional leaders of either party––a whopping 61% of voters disapprove of his job performance. Even among fellow Republicans, Ryan’s job rating is only 42% approve. Among independents, it’s a dismal 14% approve…. Among fellow Democrats, Pelosi’s approval is 63%. Among independents, however, it slumps to 16%…. Party leaders in Congress have little or virtually no support among voters outside their party tents.
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment