LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Tuesday Trivia – Poll Closings – Polling Averages in Key Races

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Gallup) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

Polling averages (based on recent polls as of this morning)

NOTE: When looking at these numbers, keep in mind that polls are only pictures in time. They don’t predict what happens after the interviewing is completed. Much of the interviewing for many of the polls used for these averages was conducted last week, or earlier, and do not reflect what happened since then. 


FLORIDANelson (D) +3.5
NEVADA: even
MISSOURI: Hawley (D) +0.8
INDIANA: Donnelly (D) +2.7
MONTANA: Tester (D) +3.3
TEXAS: Cruz (R) +4.3
MICHIGANStabenow (D) +6.3
TENNESSEE: Blackburn (R) +5.8
NORTH DAKOTA: Cramer (R) +9
NEW JERSEY: Menendez (D) +10.7
MINNESOTA: Smith (D) +12
NEW MEXICO: Heinrich (D) +17
CALIFORNIA: Feinstein (D) +12.5


FLORIDAGillum (D) +5.3
GEORGIA: Kemp (R) +2.4
NEVADA: Laxalt (R) even
WISCONSIN: Evers (D) +2
OKLAHOMA: Stitt (R) +5
IOWA: Hubbell (D) +0.3
OHIO: Cordray (D) +1.7
KANSAS: Kobach (R): +1
COLORADO: Polis (D) +6.5
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Sununu (R) +4
ARIZONA: Ducey (R) +15.7
MICHIGAN: Whitmer (D) +8.3
NEW MEXICO: Lujan Grisham (D) +7.5
NEW YORK: Cuomo (D) +15
CALIFORNIA: Newsom (D) +14.3
ILLINOIS: Pritzker (D) +17


States with Key Senate (S) and Gubernatorial (G) Races:

  • 6pm ET: Indiana (S)
  • 7pm ET: Florida (S,G), Georgia (G)
  • 7:30 pm ET: Ohio (S,G), West Virginia (S)
  • 8pm ET: Missouri (S), Mississippi (S), Tennessee (S,G), Texas (S,G), Kansas (G), Michigan (S,G), New Hampshire (G), New Jersey (S), Oklahoma (G), South Dakota (G), Pennsylvania (S, G)
  • 9pm ET: Arizona (S), Colorado (G), Wisconsin (S,G), Minnesota (S,G), New Mexico (S,G), North Dakota (S)
  • 10pm ET: Iowa (G), Montana (S), Nevada (S,G), Oregon (G)
  • 11pm ET: California (S,G)
  • Midnight ET: Alaska (G)


Since World War II, which president’s party picked up the most House seats in a midterm election?

(See answer below)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
New House race trial today are based on the most recent NYT/Siena polling.

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.


Republican George W. Bush in the 2002 midterm. His party picked up 8 House seats.

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