Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 6, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 2 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 38% (ABC-Wash Post/Emerson) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 12 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state
SENATE
INDIANA: Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) over Mike Braun (R): +3 (44-41-L8)
UTAH: Mitt Romney (R) over Jenny Wilson (D): +26 (55-29)
RON’S COMMENT: In Indiana, incumbent Donnelly is seen as one of the five or six most vulnerable senators in the nation this year. Polls have been flipping around in this race. The last one we reported had Donnelly up by 12 and the one before that had Braun up by 1…. Note that the Libertarian candidate, Lucy Brenton, is polling a substantial 8%, which could prove pivotal depending upon how she does in the end…. Donnelly leads a two-way trial heat 49-43…. Donnelly’s rating is pretty good, 48% favorable/31% unfavorable. Braun is weaker, at 39% favorable/32% unfavorable. Democrat Donnelly is doing better among Republicans (10%) than Republican Braun is doing among Democrats (2%). To have a chance to win, Braun needs to consolidate his GOP base and do better among independents; Donnelly is now winning this swing constituency by 29 points…. One issue nugget from the poll: Four-in-10 Indiana voters believe Trump’s tariffs will hurt the economy, while 28% say they’ll help it. Moreover, only 48% of Republicans say the president’s tariffs will help the economy, with 18% saying they will hurt and 24% saying they will have minor impact…. Trump won Indiana in 2016 by about 20 points….Handicappers rate the Indiana race toss-up…. In Utah, Romney maintains a big lead in this open seat. Handicappers rate the Utah race safe Republican.
BRETT KAVANAUGH
Among voters nationwide
“Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Brett Kavanaugh?”
Favorable: 35%
Unfavorable: 36%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters are closely split on Kavanaugh’s favorability. By party: 7% of Democrats, 21% of independents and 66% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kavanaugh. Also from this poll: 11% of voters perceive Kavanaugh as a moderate or liberal and 63% see him as a conservative. Of those who see him as a conservative, half say he’s “very” conservative…. In addition, voters in this poll say by a 39-33 margin that Kavanaugh should be confirmed…. Interviews for the poll were completed before the Senate hearings began.
MUELLER
Among voters nationwide
“Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Robert Mueller?”
Favorable: 39%
Unfavorable: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: 59% of Democrats, 29% of independents and 10% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Mueller.
“Do you approve or disapprove of the Mueller investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential election and potential obstruction of justice charges against members of the Trump administration?”
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 36%
RON’S COMMENT: 81% of Democrats, 42% of independents and 16% of Republicans approve of the investigation. Also in this poll: 51% of voters think the investigation is legitimate, while 42% call it a “witch hunt.” 79% of Republicans label it a “witch hunt.”
CATHOLIC CHURCH, POPE FRANCIS
Among adults statewide
“Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the Catholic Church?”
Favorable: 29%
Unfavorable: 54%
Don’t know: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: It appears that the Catholic Church’s favorability has been badly damaged by its handling of sexual abuse scandals. To put this into perspective: The Church’s current unfavorable rating is the same as Donald Trump’s job disapproval rating (54%). Keep in mind that this poll was conducted among all adults of every religious orientation in the U.S.
“Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Pope Francis?”
Favorable: 41%
Unfavorable: 34%
RON’S COMMENT: The Pope is still net positive in the U.S., but his favorability has fallen well below 50%. It should be noted that his rating is 59% among Democrats, 35% among independents and 28% among Republicans…. This poll also finds that 17% of U.S. adults say Pope Francis has made them think more positively about the Catholic, 20% say less positively and 44% say he has made no difference how they think. (It would be great to see these numbers among Catholics only, but they weren’t reported by the pollster.)
“How widespread do you think sexual abuse of children and teenagers by Catholic priests was?”
Many priests did it: 44%
A few priests did it: 27%
Hardly any priests did it: 5%
Not sure: 24%
“How widespread do you think sexual abuse of children and teenagers by Catholic priests is now?”
Many priests do it: 30%
A few priests do it: 30%
Hardly any priests do it: 10%
Not sure: 30%
“In the past, do you think the Catholic Church was mainly trying to prevent sexual abuse of children by its priests, or mainly trying to cover up the problem?”
Church tried to prevent abuse: 3%
Church tried to cover up abuse: 61%
Both equally: 15%
Don’t know: 21%
“Do you think the Catholic Church NOW is mainly trying to prevent sexual abuse of children by its priests, or mainly trying to cover up the problem?”
Church trying to prevent abuse: 21%
Church trying to cover up abuse: 28%
Both equally: 26%
Don’t know: 25%
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
INDIANA: NBC/Marist, Aug. 26-29
UTAH: Dan Jones, Aug. 22-31
CATHOLIC CHURCH, POPE FRANCIS, MUELLER, BRETT KAVANAUGH: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 2-4
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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