Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 5, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 40%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on eight polls, ranging from 36% (IBD/TIPP) to 44% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 40%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 15 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters statewide
SENATE
FLORIDA: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) and Rick Scott (R): even (49-49)
RON’S COMMENT: After a run of three polls placing Scott ahead, this is the second one now showing the race even. Scott wins whites 55-44 and Nelson wins blacks 90-5. Scott also carries Hispanics 59-39. Nelson carries Democrats 89-8 and independents 56-43. Scott carries Republicans 92-7. Sen. Nelson’s job rating is 49% approve/43% disapprove. Gov. Scott’s rating is 51% approve/46% disapprove. As usual, Florida is the state to watch. Handicappers rate the race toss-up.
GOVERNOR
FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +3 (50-47)
RON’S COMMENT: The third poll in a row showing Democrat Gillum with a lead over Republican DeSantis. Looking at the poll’s internals, there are big gender and racial gaps: Men vote for DeSantis 52-45 percent, while women support Gillum 55-42 percent. DeSantis wins whites 52-45 percent, but Gillum carries blacks 93-2. Hispanics favor DeSantis 56-43. DeSantis wins Republicans 92-6 and Gillum wins Democrats 93-3. Independents go to Gillum 55-42. Gillum’s rating is 46% favorable/33% unfavorable. DeSantis is 45% favorable/43% unfavorable. Trump’s job rating in Florida is 47% approve/51% disapprove, better than he does nationwide. Handicappers rate the race toss-up.
VOTER INTEREST
Among voters nationwide
“Compared with past midterm elections, is voting this year much more important to you, more important, the same, less important or much less important?”
Much more important: 32%
More important: 33%
Same: 31%
Less important: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: Nearly two-thirds of the national electorate say this midterm election is more important to them than part such elections. The party breakdown shows a considerable Democratic advantage: 40% of Democrats say it’s “much more important” versus 28% of Republicans who say it’s “much more important.” Also, in another question: 69% of Democratic voters say it’s “extremely” or “very” important to them that a Congressional candidate shares their views about Trump, while 65% of Republican voters do.
CANDIDATE GENDER
Among voters nationwide
“All things being equal, would you prefer to vote for a man or a woman for Congress this fall?”
Man: 7%
Woman: 16%
Doesn’t matter: 76%
RON’S COMMENT: One way to look at these numbers is that voters by more than 2 to 1 prefer voting for a woman. Another way is that more than three-fourths of voters say gender doesn’t matter when they vote for Congress…. By the demos: 29% of Democrats prefer to vote for a woman and only 5% for a man. 10% of Republicans would vote for a man and only 3% would vote for a woman. Also: 21% of women and 9% of men would vote for a woman candidate. Voters 18 to 24 pick a woman over a man 24-7, but voters over 65 prefer a male candidate 11-9.
UK: PARTY PREFERENCE/BREXIT
Among British voters
Party Preference:
% = Average of last two polls
- Labour: 39%
- Conservative: 38%
- Lib Dems: 8%
- UKIP: 6%
- SNP: 4%
- Greens: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last two polls puts Labour slightly ahead of the Conservative Party. The recent Survation poll shows men vote Conservative 39-37 and women vote Labour 45-35. Voters under 30 years old vote Labour 72-18 and voters 65-74 vote Conservative 51-30. Voters in London pick Labour 44-39.
Brexit Re-vote:
“Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ How would you vote?”
Leave the EU: 47%
Remain in the EU: 47%
Undecided: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters are split on the EU question. In the Survation poll, Conservatives vote to leave the EU by 65-32 and Labour voters want to remain in the EU by 67-29.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: Quinnipiac, Aug. 30-Sept. 3
VOTER INTEREST: Washington Post/ABC, Aug. 26-29
CANDIDATE GENDER: USA Today, Aug. 23-28
UK PARTIES, BREXIT: You Gov/The Times, Aug. 28-29; Survation, Aug. 31-Sept. 1
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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