The Iran nuclear deal continues to polarize, even after the U.S. announced its withdrawal from the pact, Foreign Policy analyzes. Those who supported the agreement proclaim loudly that Tehran will never negotiate any adjustment to it, while its opponents argue that President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of it will produce a better deal.
Even Trump seems to believe a better agreement is possible, having recently offered to talk to Tehran without preconditions. History and basic political dynamics suggest Iran’s defiant attitude about negotiations will soften before long, and it’s entirely possible to imagine the two sides reaching an agreement. Also, Moscow will likely play a decisive role as a peacemaker in the next round of U.S.-Iranian negotiations, FP notes.
With oil prices rising, however, Iran is likely to be able to cover revenue losses that may occur when the Trump administration applies the second round of sanctions at the beginning of November. But there are a few issues – first, notwithstanding the new blocking regulations the European Union has adopted, European banks and companies are pulling out of Iran – and when faced with the choice of doing business with the United States or with Iran, there is no choice.
Second, even before the first round of sanctions were reimposed on August 6, the Iranian economy was in deep trouble, FP reminds. Since April, Iran’s currency has lost 50 percent of its value, meaning Iranian bank accounts are worth half of what they were then, and the Iranian public is clearly unhappy. Strikes are increasing, as truckers held a strike throughout the country in July; and more recently, riot police were called out in response to strikes in the cities of Mashhad, Isfahan, Rasht, Ahvaz, and Karaj.
Third, when the regime feels truly squeezed, its historic pattern is to adjust its behavior. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic’s first supreme leader, proclaimed Iran would fight Iraq for as long as it took to defeat it. Yet, he ended the war in August 1988, when U.S. forces in the Gulf destroyed Iranian naval vessels and oil platforms and accidentally downed an Iranian civilian airline. In the 1990s, Iran stopped killing dissidents in Europe when Germany threatened sanctions. Following the U.S. defeat of Saddam’s army in 2003, and fearing Iran might be next, the regime made far-reaching offers to limit its nuclear program and support for Hezbollah and Hamas. And, after declaring that they would never negotiate on their nuclear program so long as they were under sanction, and the Obama administration doubled down on the sanction, the Iranians negotiated, FP notes.
All of this suggests that as the economy falters and pressure rises in Iran, the regime will, in time, look for a way out and be willing to talk.
According to FP, Tehran is likely to seek a way to talk, but not directly, because that would look like a surrender. Instead, early next year Iran’s leaders will likely approach Moscow, as they see how Trump relates to Putin, and with Putin’s interest in demonstrating Russian clout on the world stage, he will gladly be the arbiter between the United State and Iran.
However, at the moment, the Iranian public is reeling at the U.S. President. According to Iranian political analyst Mohammad Marandi, Trump is “behaving like a mafia boss.”
Speaking to BBC Hardtalk’s Stephen Sackur, Marandi admitted that the Iranian economy will face difficulties, but it should stabilize within a few months, adding that the country has been through much worse. “The Americans want to crush the Iranian people, they want to humiliate the Iranian people and that simply is not going to work,” Marandi stressed.
Be the first to comment