LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Mayor of LA – Alaska, Iowa, New Hampshire, New York, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 25, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Emerson) to 45% (YouGov). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), putting him at 12 points net negative.

PRESIDENT: 2024 
Among voters statewide

NEW HAMPSHIRE

• Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +1 (44-43) Emerson

RON’S COMMENT: These numbers aren’t that hot for Biden. He beat Trump by 7 points in the state in 2020.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENT:  

• Ranked choice voting in Alaska may save independent-minded incumbent Murkowski (R).
• NRSC/Tarrance-R poll in Iowa shows Grassley (R) with sizable lead, but recent Selzer poll had it much closer.
• Latest New Hampshire polling worries Democrats. While incumbent Hassan has led the whole way, her margins are getting dangerously narrow. Men vote for Bolduc (R) by 12 and women break for Hassan by 16, according to Emerson.
• Latest Wisconsin poll has Johnson’s (R) lead a thin 1-point. Johnson’s rating is 46% favorable/51% unfavorable and Barnes is 44% favorable/49% unfavorable. Biden is 43% approve/57% disapprove in this critical swing state.
• In Pennsylvania, the numbers keep bouncing around within a few points, but Fetterman still has a lead.
• The new poll from Trafalgar, a GOP-affiliated firm, has Walker (R) leading Warnock (D) in Georgia. It’s the first public poll that has Walker ahead since mid-September. The average of recent polls is extremely tight.
• Vance’s (R) average lead in Ohio narrows.

PENNSYLVANIA

• John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +2 (51-49) CBS
• John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +2 (45-43) Rasmussen
• John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +5 (51-46) CNN
• Average: D +3

ARIZONA

• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +3 (48-45) Susquehanna
• Average of recent polls: D +2 

NEW HAMPSHIRE

• Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Don Bolduc (R): +3 (48-45-2) Emerson
• Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Don Bolduc (R): +1 (48-47) InsiderAdvantage
• Average of recent polls: D +3.7 

GEORGIA

• Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +2 (49-47) 
• Average of recent polls: D +.03  

OHIO

• J.D. Vance (R) and Tim Ryan (D): even (46-46) Siena
• Average of recent polls: R +1.3

ALASKA

• First round: Sen.Lisa Murkowski (R) 41%, Kelly Tshibaka (R) 39%, Pat Chesbro (D) 16% ASR
• Third round: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) 56%, Kelly Tshibaka (R) 44% ASR

IOWA

• Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) over Michael Franken (D): +11 (53-42) Tarrance-R
• Average of recent polls: R +5.7

WISCONSIN

• Sen. Ron Johnson (R) over Mandela Barnes (D): +1 (50-49) CNN
• Average of recent polls: R +1.7

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

RON’S COMMENTS: 

• Hochul’s (D) average margin in New York dips below 7. Polls show widely divergent results.
• GOP poll has Ronchetti (R) overtaking Gov. Lujan Grisham (D) in New Mexico, but average still favors incumbent.
• Wisconsin remains a pitched battle.
• Arizona nearly even.

ARIZONA

• Katie Hobbs (D) over Kari Lake (R): +1 (48-47). Susquehanna
• Average of recent polls: R +0.3

WISCONSIN

• Gov. Tony Evers (D) over Tim Michels (R): +2 (50-48)  CNN
• Average of recent polls: D +1 

NEW MEXICO

• Mark Ronchetti (R) over Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) Trafalgar-R
• Average of recent polls: D +3.5

MICHIGAN  

• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +6 (52-46) CNN
• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +6 (50-44) Cygnal-R
• Average of recent polls: D +3.5

NEW HAMPSHIRE

• Gov. Chris Sununu (R) over Tom Sherman (D): +12 (52-40) Emerson
• Average of recent polls: R +13

NEW YORK 

• Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +15 (52-37) Bold Decision
• Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +6 (47-41) SurveyUSA
• Lee Zeldin (R) over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D): +1 (46-45) co/efficient-R
• Average of recent polls: D +6.7

MAYOR OF LOS ANGELES 
Among voters citywide  

• Rick Caruso (D) over Karen Bass (D): +3 (40-37)  J. Wallin

RON’S COMMENT: U.S. Rep. Bass was seen as the favorite, but maverick businessman Caruso, who has put millions of his own money into the race, leads her in this poll. Bass wins Democrats, but Caruso wins Republicans and independents…. The poll shows that homelessness, crime, inflation and affordable housing are the top issues.

TUESDAY TRIVIA

In President Reagan’s first midterm election in 1982, which of the following happened?
(a) Democrats won a net gain of 4 Senate seats and 37 House seats.
(b) Democrats won a net gain of 1 Senate seat and 26 House seats.
(c) Republicans won a net gain of 1 Senate seat and 9 House seats.

(See answer below)

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

TUESDAY TRIVIA
(b) Democrats won a net gain of 1 Senate seat and 26 House seats.

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