Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, March 8, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 2 from Feb. 28 (day before the SOTU speech)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s approval rating improved a bit over the past week, likely influenced by the State of the Union speech…. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (IBD/TIPP) to 47% (Marist/NPR/PBS). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (down 4 from Feb. 28), putting him 8 points net negative.
SENATE 2022
Among voters statewide
MISSOURI
Republican Primary
Eric Greitens: 31%
Eric Schmitt: 23%
Vicky Hartzler: 17%
Others: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: Former Gov. Greitens resigned the governorship in 2018 over sexual misconduct and campaign finance allegations. This Trafalgar (R) poll shows him leading the GOP field for the open Senate seat of retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R). Although the well-known Greitens is running first, note that his Republican opponents receive a combined 55% of the vote against him. Other recent polls have had Greitens in the 25-28% range…. Many Republican politicians and operatives fear that if Greitens becomes the Republican Senate nominee that he could lose to a Democrat in November, which would be a blow to Republican hopes of winning a Senate majority.
PENNSYLVANIA
Republican primary
David McCormick: 25%
Mehmet Oz: 19%
Carla Sands: 11%
Jeff Bartos: 10%
Kathy Barnette: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R)…. The race has big national implications…. MrCormick, who headed a hedge fund with $140 billion in assets, has overtaken Oz, the celebrity doctor. As we said last month, “McCormick has big money and may have the most potential for growth.” That’s turned out to be true…. In a two-way race, McCormick beats Oz 56-26…. Sands is a former Trump ambassador to Denmark; she has Newt Gingrich’s support plus a slew of former ambassadors….. Businessman/former lt. governor nominee Bartos and army veteran/political commentator Barnette are supported by party activists…. Trump had been supporting Sean Parnell in the primary until he withdrew from the race…. The primary is May 17.
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
IOWA
General election
Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) over Deidre DeJear (D): +8 (51-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Republican Gov. Reynolds is seeking her second full term and starts off the campaign with a clear lead. She wins independents 49-41. Her job rating is a lackluster––but maybe good enough––49% approve/44% disapprove.
GEORGIA
Republican primary
Gov. Brian Kemp: 44%
David Perdue: 35%
Others: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Gov. Kemp continues to post a clear lead over Perdue, his main GOP primary challenger who has Trump’s support. The primary is May 24…. The winner will face Democrat Stacey Abrams.
PENNSYLVANIA
Republican primary
Lou Barletta: 17%
Doug Mastriano: 14%
William McSwain: 7%
Jake Corman: 6%
Other candidates: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows what is essentially a two-way race in the May 17 primary. Barletta, a former member of the U.S. House and the 2018 GOP Senate nominee, posts a narrow lead over Mastriano in the Republican primary for governor. Mastriano and Corman are state senators, McSwain is a former U.S. Attorney…. Incumbent Gov. Tom Wolfe (D) is term-limited…. Josh Shapiro, the state’s AG, is the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor.
UKRAINE AND RUSSIA
Among voters nationwide
Biden’s approval: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 46%
RON’S COMMENT: Previous polling had Biden’s approval on Ukraine as low as 34%. There may have been some “rally around the flag” sentiment as a result of the SOTU speech that has boosted Biden’s rating, but the boost hasn’t been enough to get it out of net-negative territory.
Biden’s toughness: Do you think the steps that the Biden administration has taken to punish Russia for the invasion of Ukraine have been too tough on Russia, not tough enough on Russia, or have they been about right?
Too tough: 3%
Not tough enough: 58%
About right: 30%
RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters think Biden has not been tough enough on Russia. These numbers have not changed much over the past week and a half.
Refugees: Do you support or oppose accepting Ukrainian refugees into the U.S.?
Support accepting refugees: 79%
Oppose accepting refugees: 14%
Ban Russian oil: Would you support a ban on Russian oil, if it meant higher gasoline prices in the United States?
Yes: 74%
No: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters overwhelmingly favor banning Russian oil, despite impact on pricing.
U.S. military action/NATO: As you may know, the United States is a member of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Its collective defense treaty states that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO countries. If Russian President Vladimir Putin goes beyond Ukraine and attacks a NATO country, would you support or oppose a military response from the United States?
Support a U.S. military response: 82%
Oppose a U.S. military response: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: U.S. voters overwhelmingly would support U.S. military action if Putin attacks a NATO country.
Putin’s mental stability: Do you think Russian President Vladimir Putin is mentally stable or mentally unstable?
Stable: 20%
Unstable: 61%
Don’t know: 19%
Nukes: Do you think Vladimir Putin is willing to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries, or not?
Yes: 61%
No: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: Solid majorities of U.S. voters think Putin is unstable and would use the bomb on NATO countries…. Also:
- 53% of U.S. voters would compare Vladimir Putin’s actions against Ukraine to Adolph Hitler‘s actions against Austria and Czechoslovakia before the outbreak of World War II; 30% would not make that comparison.
Duration: Do you expect the war in Ukraine to last weeks, months, or years?
Weeks: 19%
Months: 46%
Years: 22%
What would you do? If you were in the same position as Ukrainians are now, do you think that you would stay and fight or leave the country?
Stay and fight: 55%
Leave the country: 38%
Don’t know: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: If U.S. voters were in the same position as Ukrainians are now, a majority (55%) would stay and fight.
- By party: 40% ofDemocrats, 68% of Republicans and 57% of independents would stay and fight––while 52% of Democrats, 25% of Republicans and 36% of independents would leave the country.
- By race: 57% ofWhites, 38% of Blacks and 61% of Hispanics would stay and fight––while 35% ofWhites, 59% of Blacks and 33% of Hispanics would leave the country.
- By age: 45% of18-34 year olds, 57% of 35-49 year olds, 66% of 50-64 year olds and 52% of 65+ would stay and fight––while 48% of18-34 year olds, 37% of 35-49 year olds, 28% of 50-64 year olds and 37% of 65+ would leave the country.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which country has the largest economy (as measured by GDP):
Russia, Canada or South Korea?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: Selzer & Co., Feb. 28-March 2
GEORGIA: FOX 5 Atlanta/InsiderAdvantage, Feb. 28-March 1
MISSOURI: Trafalgar Group (R), Feb. 22-24
PENNSYLVANIA: Target Point (R), Feb. 25-28
UKRAINE AND RUSSIA: Quinnipiac, March 4-6
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
Canada ($2 trillion) has a larger GDP than South Korea ($1.8 trillion) or Russia ($1.6 trillion). Based on IMF 2021 data.
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